Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Can the 50-Day MA Hold If $4046.60 Breakout Fails?

Gold Price Outlook: Will Bulls Punch Through $4046.60 or Fold Back to 50-Day MA Support?

Spot gold (XAU/USD) remains locked in a tight two-week range between $3886.46 and $4046.60, and traders are eyeing a breakout. A move above $4046.60 could trigger a quick stop-run higher, but real resistance doesn’t show up until the $4133.95–$4192.36 retracement zone.

Whether bulls can push through that area or fade sets the stage for the next leg — either toward the $4381.44 record high or back toward key support levels at $3855.93 and $3846.50.

At 12:49 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3964.18, up $32.08 or +0.82%.

Gold Gains on Dollar Pullback and Risk-Off Sentiment

Gold rose more than 1% Wednesday as the dollar eased and risk appetite weakened. Investors rotated into safe-haven assets amid ongoing political uncertainty and data gaps caused by the now 36-day U.S. government shutdown — the longest in history. The lack of official economic releases has pushed focus toward alternative indicators like the ADP private payrolls report and ISM services data.

Treasury yields were mostly unchanged, with the 10-year dipping to 4.083% and the 2-year at 3.572%. That stability in yields offered limited directional momentum for gold, but haven buying helped offset the stronger dollar.

Fed Uncertainty Fuels Diverging Views, Boosts Dollar

The Fed’s rate outlook remains unclear. Although the central bank cut rates last week, Chair Powell signaled another cut in December isn’t guaranteed. Since then, Fed officials have split publicly on whether more easing is needed. Market expectations for a December cut have dropped to 65%, down from 94% just a week ago, per CME FedWatch.

This shift has kept the dollar bid, especially against the euro, which posted its fifth straight daily loss to $1.148 — its weakest since August. Despite this, gold has held recent gains, suggesting that haven demand is helping offset some dollar pressure.

Gold Still Up Over 50% YTD, But Froth Has Come Off

Gold has gained more than 50% this year but is down over 9% from the October 20 record high at $4381.44.

StoneX’s Rhona O’Connell says some of the “froth” has come out of the market during the latest correction, but long-term drivers like Fed credibility concerns, stagflation risks, and geopolitical tensions remain supportive.

Gold Price Forecast: Neutral Until Breakout, But $3846.50 Is Key Support

Gold remains range-bound with a neutral near-term bias. A decisive breakout above $4046.60 would likely target $4133.95–$4192.36, where bulls may stall. Failing to clear that zone risks a reversal.

On the downside, a break below the 50-day moving average at $3855.93 — and especially the long-term pivot at $3846.50 — would open the door for heavier selling. Watch that pivot closely: it’s the line between consolidation and a deeper pullback.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.