Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Dollar Strength Caps Gold Price as Traders Await NFP

Gold Price Holds Flat as Traders Brace for Delayed NFP and Fed Minutes Impact

Spot Gold is barely moving in early U.S. trade, and you can feel the hesitation across the market. With the delayed Non-Farm Payrolls report dropping later today and traders still digesting Wednesday’s Fed minutes, nobody is taking on major exposure.

Earlier in the session, gold dipped into a minor retracement zone at $4065.83 to $4023.35, holding just above the minor bottom at $4082.58 and the 50-day moving average at $3972.97. Buyers stepped in again, showing they’re still respecting that trend indicator.

At 13:08 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4090.32, up $12.47 or +0.31%.

Gold Market Pullback as Dollar Firms Ahead of Jobs Data

Gold is down more than 1% on Thursday, driven by a firmer dollar and a sharp drop in expectations for a December rate cut. The dollar index sits near a two-week high, and that strength continues to pressure XAU/USD. Traders are dealing with typical year-end two-way flow, with profit-taking meeting fresh positioning.

The Fed minutes didn’t help the bullish side either: officials cut in October but warned that easing too fast risks sticky inflation and credibility concerns. Rate-cut pricing for December has fallen to roughly 34%, down from 49% just a day earlier.

Jobs Report Delay Keeps Fed Outlook Uncertain

Today’s September payrolls print—delayed by the shutdown—lands at 13:30 GMT, and expectations sit near 50,000 jobs versus August’s 22,000. It’s an old data set, but the Fed meets December 10 without the next jobs report until December 16, so this release still matters.

Deutsche Bank notes that a December cut basically requires a weak number, and traders know it. Treasury yields are inching higher ahead of the release, with the 10-year around 4.146% and the 2-year at 3.61%, keeping pressure on non-yielding gold.

Dollar Rally Extends as Fed Minutes Slash Cut Odds

Across FX, the dollar is pushing higher after the Fed minutes showed “many” officials opposing a December cut. The yen slid toward 158 per dollar before stabilizing, with traders openly debating whether Japan steps in around 160.

The euro hit a two-week low at $1.1515, and the dollar index has moved toward 100.26. Dollar strength keeps gold capped for now, especially with rate-cut odds falling below 25% at one point.

Gold Price Forecast: Bulls Need a Break Above $4133.95

For now, dip buyers still control the market as long as the 50-day moving average at $3972.97 stays pointed upward. But upside progress is limited unless gold can clear the 50% short-term level at $4133.95, followed by $4192.36 and the swing top at $4245.20. The short-term bias leans mildly bullish above $4082.58, but a strong NFP print would likely flip that tone quickly.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.