Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Price Slumps as Bears Target $3954.95 Moving Average

Gold Price Slides to $3997.98 as Rate Cut Odds Erode Ahead of Key U.S. Data

Spot gold is trading lower for a fourth straight session on Tuesday, falling to an intraday low of $3997.98 before attempting a modest rebound. The move extends the pullback from the November 13 secondary lower top at $4245.20. That level remains the key upside trigger for a resumption of the broader uptrend toward the all-time high at $4381.44.

At 12:09 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $4042.16, down $3.70 or -0.09%.

Fed Caution Pressures Gold as December Cut Bets Decline

Gold’s weakness is being driven by receding expectations for a December rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, odds for a cut have dropped to just 42%, down sharply from 67% last week. This shift follows a chorus of hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, who emphasized the need to “proceed slowly” with further easing.

The lack of fresh economic data — delayed by the recent 43-day U.S. government shutdown — has added uncertainty. Traders had expected the return of official releases to support the case for a December cut, but so far, the Fed’s tone remains cautious.

Key Technical Zones in Play Below $4245.20

Gold is now caught between key retracement levels. Resistance stands at $4133.95 to $4192.36. A breakout above this zone and the $4245.20 swing top would shift the outlook back to bullish and bring $4381.44 back into focus.

Support is currently defined by the $4065.83 to $4023.35 retracement zone. The breakdown toward $3997.98 brings the 50-day moving average at $3954.95 into view. That indicator has guided the market higher since August, and bulls are expected to defend it on a first test. A close below opens downside targets at $3928.68, $3886.46, and $3846.50.

U.S. Jobs Data Could Determine Next Move

Markets are now laser-focused on upcoming U.S. data, with the Fed minutes due Wednesday and September nonfarm payrolls scheduled for Thursday. Traders want clarity on the labor market’s strength after weeks without official data. A weak print could revive rate cut expectations and help gold catch a bid, while strong numbers would likely reinforce Fed caution and keep pressure on the metal.

Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Bias Below $4065.83, Breakdown Risks Rising

As long as gold remains capped beneath $4133.95 and below the $4245.20 swing top, the near-term bias stays bearish. The failure to hold above $4023.35 increases the risk of a break below the 50-day MA at $3954.95, which would trigger a deeper correction. Bulls need a strong reversal and data-driven shift in Fed expectations to regain control.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.