Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Markets Brace for Volatility as FOMC Looms

Gold Holds Its Ground as Traders Position Into the Fed

Let’s run through the week from December 1–5 — a stretch where gold barely gave up ground but revealed plenty about how traders are setting up ahead of the December 9–10 FOMC.

Gold Price Recap: Buyers Stayed Engaged Above the $4,133.95 Pivot

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) closed at $4,198.68, down just 0.41%, and traded a tight $4,163.80–$4,264.70 range. The market never really lost its bid. Early in the week, traders pushed spot back through $4,200 toward $4,264.70 as conviction strengthened around an 87% chance of a 25-bp cut next week. You could feel the market leaning into the idea that the Fed has enough cover to keep easing.

Soft labor data supported that view. ADP showed a 32,000 job loss, Challenger layoffs hit 71,321, and the long-delayed September jobs report — while firmer at 119,000 — didn’t change the forward read: labor momentum is cooling. Traders used the data vacuum from the shutdown as another reason to stay long gold.

By Friday, the September PCE release added fuel. Headline rose 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y, and core eased to 2.8%. Inflation wasn’t heating up, and that was enough for buyers to step in again as gold pushed back toward $4,264.70. Consumer sentiment improved to 53.3, while short- and long-term inflation expectations ticked lower — another steady tailwind.

Politics added its own boost. Reports that Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to replace Powell — and his blunt call for more aggressive cuts — reinforced the idea that policy in 2026 could lean dovish regardless of economic conditions. Traders didn’t ignore that signal.

Gold Analysis: Technical Structure Still Bullish Above $4,133.95

Technically, gold held the level it needed to. The settlement at $4,198.68 is comfortably above the $4,133.95 pivot — the 50% retracement of $3,886.46 to $4,264.70. Staying above that zone keeps buyers in control and keeps a retest of $4,264.70 in play. A breakout through the weekly high would open the door to $4,381.44, the record high.

If sellers push through $4,133.95, the first real support sits at $4,075.58. A deeper pullback would target $3,886.46 — the main bottom that halted October’s slide and matches the top of the $3,846.50–$3,720.25 intermediate retracement zone. That zone remains the best long-term value area, though reaching it would require the narrative to shift materially.

Fed Week: Will Powell Reinforce the Gold Rally or Stall It?

Next week’s FOMC meeting is the entire focus. The committee is split, and Powell has avoided committing to a move. Doves like Williams and Waller argue for more easing; hawks like Collins want to hold steady. Desks expect at least two dissents — rare, and a reminder that the policy debate is far from settled.

Even a “hawkish cut” keeps policy moving in a gold-friendly direction. And with geopolitical risk elevated — from Ukraine uncertainty to U.S.–China tensions — safe-haven demand hasn’t gone away.

Gold Price Forecast: Bias Stays Bullish While Above $4,133.95

Heading into the Fed:

• Holding above $4,133.95 keeps the bullish bias intact.
• A push through $4,264.70 signals a breakout toward $4,381.44, the next psychological marker.
• A failure at $4,133.95 opens the door to $4,075.58, where buyers may re-engage.
• Stronger value still sits at $3,886.46–$3,846.50, though the market isn’t trading like it wants to test that zone.

Bottom line: Gold is consolidating, not breaking. The technical structure is solid, traders continue to buy weakness, and unless Powell meaningfully shifts expectations, the path of least resistance still points higher.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.