Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Plunge Through 50-Day MA Sets Bearish Tone for Traders

Gold Forecast Steady as Dollar Weakens and Key US Data Looms

Gold prices held near unchanged on Thursday after earlier losses pushed bullion through the 50-day moving average at $3,155.30, a key technical level that could act as support. Traders are now watching whether this zone, along with the pivot at $3,166.46, holds or breaks, which would determine short-term direction for XAU/USD.

At 12:06 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3181.99, up $4.400 or $0.14%.

Gold Stabilizes as Dollar Softens and Trendline Support Holds

Spot gold steadied after hitting its lowest level since April 10, supported by technical buying and a weaker U.S. dollar. The metal bounced near long-standing trendline support around $3,130, in place since the start of 2025. The dollar index (.DXY) slipped 0.3% to 100.81, making gold more attractive for holders of other currencies. However, despite Thursday’s dip, the index is on track for a modest weekly gain, though it remains down nearly 7% in 2025.

Investor Focus Turns to US Inflation and Retail Data

Markets are awaiting several key U.S. economic reports, including the producer price index, retail sales, and weekly jobless claims. These could influence rate expectations heading into the second half of 2025. Tuesday’s CPI data came in softer than expected, with core inflation rising only 0.2% in April. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak later Thursday, and traders will be parsing his comments for any hints on the Fed’s policy stance. Markets are still pricing in 50 basis points of cuts by year-end, likely starting in October.

US-China Trade Truce Dampens Safe-Haven Demand

Gold’s appeal as a safe haven has eased somewhat after the U.S. and China agreed to pause most tariffs for 90 days. While this de-escalated trade tensions, it also reduced immediate hedging demand for bullion. The drop in safe-haven flows, combined with higher Treasury yields earlier in the week, pressured gold lower before Thursday’s stabilization.

Gold Price Projections

Gold is consolidating above major support levels after breaking below its 50-day moving average. A sustained move below it would expose the retracement zone between $3,087.70 and $3,018.52.

However, if the dollar continues to weaken and upcoming data supports rate cut expectations, gold could recover toward the $3,228.38 pivot.

For now, gold prices forecast a neutral-to-bearish bias, with traders cautious ahead of pivotal U.S. inflation data and Powell’s remarks.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.