Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: $3,374 and $38.74 Resistances Eyed

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) rebounded during early Tuesday trading, climbing to $3,361 as the US dollar paused after a multi-week rally. The metal found near-term support from softer dollar flows and cautious investor positioning ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later today.

Markets are anticipating headline CPI to rise 2.7% year-over-year for June, with core CPI expected at 3.0%, according to median forecasts. Any downside surprise could reinforce speculation of an earlier rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

As of this morning, CME FedWatch Tool data shows traders pricing in a 60% probability of a rate cut by September, with markets expecting at least 50 basis points of easing by year-end.

“The inflation print is the final catalyst traders need before repricing the Fed’s path into Q3,” said an analyst at ING. Lower rates typically weigh on the dollar and boost non-yielding assets like gold.

Tariff Pressures and Fed Path Add to Volatility

Trade policy remains a key risk factor for metals markets. While recent tariffs and policy announcements have heightened uncertainty, there are early signs of moderation.

On Monday, President Trump signaled potential openness to renewed trade talks ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline, softening the previous stance on sanctions and cross-border levies. Though this eased immediate fears of a broader economic disruption, investors remain cautious.

With both gold and silver reacting to monetary policy shifts and global trade dynamics, upcoming CPI and PPI figures will likely determine whether recent rebounds hold. Until then, traders appear reluctant to extend positions, preferring to stay on the sidelines until macro clarity improves.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver remain in bullish territory above key EMAs. CPI data will likely define direction. A breakout above $3,374 or $38.74 could confirm bullish continuation.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding steady near $3,361 after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle earlier this month. The price remains supported by an ascending channel and trades comfortably above both the 50-period EMA at $3,341.70 and the 200-period EMA at $3,334.87.

These moving averages continue to offer dynamic support. On the upside, price faces immediate resistance at $3,374, followed by $3,392 and $3,408. A close above this zone would open the door for further gains.

On the downside, initial support rests at $3,340, with deeper levels seen at $3,313 and $3,282. Unless the price breaks below the channel, the bias remains tilted to the upside heading into the week’s key macroeconomic updates.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $38.31, holding just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $38.03 after a steep pullback from the recent high of $39.12. Price remains supported by the rising trendline and the 50-period EMA at $37.74, while the 200-period EMA at $36.79 offers deeper technical support.

The short-term bias stays positive as long as price holds above the $38.00 area, with potential to retest resistance at $38.49 and $38.74. A decisive move above that could open the path toward $39.12 again.

A breakdown below the trendline, however, may shift the focus toward the 50% retracement at $37.69 or even the 61.8% level at $37.36.