Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Breakdown Below $3,300 as Fed and Tariffs Loom

Market Overview

Gold prices extended their decline during Wednesday’s Asian session, breaking below the $3,300 level for the first time in over ten days. Spot gold (XAU/USD) dropped to $3,294, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, both of which were buoyed by renewed inflation concerns stemming from proposed U.S. trade tariffs.

Silver followed suit, slipping to $36.47 before stabilizing near $36.62. The metal mirrored gold’s weakness as a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and stronger economic data prompted investors to rotate into yield-bearing assets, further dampening interest in non-yielding metals.

Fed Stays Cautious as Rate Cut Hopes Fade

The Federal Reserve’s stance remains a key pressure point for bullion markets. Following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for June, market participants have pared back expectations of a July rate cut.

The CME FedWatch tool indicates that traders are now pricing in just a 20% probability of a cut at the upcoming meeting, with most expectations being deferred to October or later.

“Investors are holding back ahead of the FOMC minutes, looking for any deviation from the Fed’s cautious tone,” said a senior strategist at Wells Fargo. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.3%, reinforcing dollar strength and keeping gold bulls at bay.

Trump’s Tariff Threats Stir Market Volatility

Former President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs, set to take effect on August 1, has added to concerns about inflation. Proposed duties include up to 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals and 50% on imported copper. These aggressive measures have reignited fears of global supply chain disruptions and added to broader economic uncertainty.

Despite downward price action, demand for gold as a safe haven has not fully evaporated. Risk sentiment in equity markets remains fragile, offering limited downside protection for gold as geopolitical tensions and trade policy risks mount.

All Eyes on FOMC Minutes for Market Direction

Traders await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes later today. With markets still anticipating up to 50 basis points in cuts by year-end, any shift in tone could spark significant price action across precious metals. Until then, gold and silver remain vulnerable to further downside, contingent on dollar momentum and bond market signals.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains under pressure below $3,300, with bearish momentum targeting $3,285. Silver consolidates near $36.70, with a breakout above $36.87 or breakdown below $36.48 likely to define direction.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading just below $3,294 after breaking down from a symmetrical triangle formation on the 2-hour chart. Price action has shifted bearish following the rejection at $3,324, with multiple rejections near the 50-EMA ($3,319) and 200-EMA ($3,332) confirming overhead pressure.

The recent lower high near $3,330 and drop toward $3,285 signals increased selling momentum. Immediate support rests at $3,285, followed by $3,263 and $3,243. A sustained drop below $3,285 could trigger a deeper move toward $3,210.

On the upside, buyers would need to reclaim $3,307 to negate the bearish breakdown. The bias favors shorts when prices are below the EMAs, with a possible retest of the broken support-turned-resistance offering potential entry points.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is consolidating just above $36.70 after bouncing off trendline support near $36.48. The price remains caught between the 50-EMA ($36.63) and the upper resistance at $36.87, while the 200-EMA ($36.27) continues to slope upward—indicating a supportive bias.

Price action is forming higher lows, with ascending trendlines supporting the structure since late June. A sustained move above $36.87 could trigger a push toward $37.17 and possibly $37.43. On the downside, $36.48 and $36.15 are key supports to watch.

Candles are showing a tightening range, hinting at a possible breakout. Bulls may look for confirmation above $36.87, while bears might await a break below $36.48 to shift bias.