Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Fed Minutes, Tariffs Keep Markets on Edge

Market Overview

Gold prices (XAU/USD) edged lower on Monday, dropping to an intraday low of $3,305 before stabilizing near $3,314. The move followed a stronger-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June, which saw the U.S. economy add 147,000 jobs, up from a revised 144,000 in May.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, underscoring labor market resilience and tempering expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The robust jobs data sent the U.S. Dollar higher, making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive.

“The market is recalibrating its rate-cut timeline,” said a senior analyst at Saxo Bank. “This makes it harder for gold to break higher in the short term.”

The white metal remains highly sensitive to shifts in interest rate outlook and U.S. macro data, given its dual role as an industrial and monetary asset.

Fed Minutes, Trade Uncertainty in Focus

Traders are now turning their attention to Wednesday’s release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, seeking further insight into policymakers’ stance on inflation and rates.

While recent economic indicators suggest strength, upcoming inflation prints and global trade negotiations could complicate the Fed’s path. Adding to market caution is the revival of U.S. trade policy risks.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that President Trump intends to send formal notifications to key trading partners, warning that tariffs will revert to their April 2 levels if no progress is made by August 1. This has reintroduced uncertainty into global markets, prompting renewed interest in safe-haven assets.

Geopolitical Risk Provides a Safety Net

Despite downward pressure from macroeconomic strength, escalating geopolitical tensions in several regions continue to provide a cushion for gold prices.

Elevated risks abroad are supporting demand for gold as a hedge, even as fundamentals lean bearish in the near term.

While gold and silver remain range-bound for now, any flare-up in geopolitical or trade-related developments could quickly shift sentiment, keeping both metals firmly on traders’ watchlists.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver remain range-bound as traders await the release of the Fed minutes. Bearish pressure lingers below resistance, but geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty continue to offer support for both metals near key levels.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading below the broken rising trendline near $3,322, signaling bearish pressure after a clean rejection from the $3,366 resistance zone. The price is now struggling to reclaim the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, which are acting as dynamic resistance levels near $3,331 and $3,336, respectively.

The breakdown invalidated a short-term series of higher lows, and a bearish engulfing candle accompanied the sharp drop. Immediate support sits at $3,296; a break below this could expose $3,274.

While the structure leans bearish, any bullish reversal above $3,322 would need to clear $3,336 to shift momentum. Until then, sellers retain control below trendline resistance.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) rebounded after testing the ascending trendline and 50-EMA near $36.50, preserving the broader uptrend. The drop followed a sharp rejection from $37.15, where a double-top structure appears to be forming. Momentum cooled, but the bounce from $36.39 suggests dip-buying interest remains.

The confluence of the trendline, 50-EMA, and horizontal support adds significance to this area. Price needs to reclaim $36.82 to invalidate the bearish setup and target $37.15 again.

A close below $36.39 would weaken the bullish structure and expose $36.12 or even $35.88. Until then, the bulls hold a narrow technical edge within this rising channel.