Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Crude Retreats on OPEC+ Hike and China Demand Slump

Market Overview

Crude oil prices slid by over 1% to $65 per barrel on Monday, pressured by rising supply and growing demand concerns. OPEC+ announced an output increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August—well above the expected 411,000 bpd—amplifying oversupply fears.

Meanwhile, renewed geopolitical tensions and looming trade restrictions have heightened uncertainty around global fuel demand. A surprise build in U.S. crude inventories, the largest in three months, further compounded the bearish tone.

With economic data from China signaling softer energy consumption, both the oil and natural gas markets are bracing for continued volatility amid tightening policy risks and unstable macroeconomic conditions.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures (NGQ2025) are edging lower after failing to reclaim $3.57, reinforcing the downtrend from June highs. Price remains capped beneath a descending trendline and both the 50- and 200-period EMAs, with the 50-EMA near $3.44 acting as immediate resistance.

The market is now testing support at $3.30, a level that has previously held during intraday dips. A clean break below this zone opens the path toward $3.20 and $3.11.

On the upside, bulls need to clear $3.57 to shift short-term momentum. Until then, the trend remains bearish, with lower highs and lower lows confirming continued selling pressure.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil (USOIL) is consolidating between $64.00 and $67.10 after last month’s steep decline from $74.31. Price recently rejected the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $67.10 and is now hovering around the $66.20 area—just below the 50- and 200-EMA cluster, indicating heavy resistance.

A descending trendline from the June highs continues to cap upward movement, while buyers have repeatedly defended the rising trendline support near $65.00. The broader structure suggests indecision, but a sustained move above $67.10 could open the door toward $69.00 and the 0.382 Fib level.

On the downside, a break below $64.00 risks deeper pullbacks toward $63.02 or even $62.12. Traders should monitor volume near key fib levels for directional clues.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) continues to trade within a tightening range, currently supported by a rising trendline that intersects near $67.40. Price recently bounced from this zone after failing to break above $69.21—where both the 50-EMA and 200-EMA converge to form dynamic resistance.

The broader structure is forming a symmetrical triangle, suggesting a potential breakout as volatility compresses. A daily close above $69.21 could trigger upside toward $70.59, while a breakdown below $67.40 would expose $65.92 and possibly $64.26.