Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: PCE and Jobless Claims Set the Tone for Gold Traders

Gold Rallies as Fed Chair Powell Hints at Shift in Policy Focus

Gold (XAU/USD) finished the week strong, settling at $3371.23—up $35.53 or +1.07%—after a key bounce off the long-term pivot at $3310.48. The move capped a week dominated by Jerome Powell’s Friday appearance at Jackson Hole, where the Fed Chair shifted tone and emphasized employment risks over inflation. The speech was the green light gold bulls were waiting for.

Federal Reserve Turns Its Eyes to the Labor Market

In his final Jackson Hole appearance (14:00 GMT Friday), Powell acknowledged a potential softening in the labor market, saying “the balance of risks has shifted.” That subtle line was enough to light a fire under rate cut expectations. Markets quickly repriced the odds of a September cut to 91%, up from 72% earlier in the day. Traders now expect employment data to play a much larger role in shaping Fed policy over the next few months.

Dollar Breaks Down, Yields Follow

The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.11% last week to close at 97.732. The index is now in a position to challenge recent main bottoms at 97.109 and 96.377. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield plunged to 3.698% and the 10-year dropped to 4.256%. That combination of falling yields and a weaker dollar removed two major headwinds for gold, helping the metal punch through resistance and recapture bullish momentum.

Can Gold Extend the Breakout? Watch $3409.43 Closely

With $3310.48 confirmed as weekly support, gold’s next test is $3409.43. A clean break and weekly close above that would open the door to $3439.04, $3451.53, and eventually the record high at $3500.20.

If gold pulls back, support levels to watch include $3268.12, $3244.41, and $3120.76—but buyers have shown a willingness to defend dips above $3310.48, keeping the pressure on the upside.

Outlook: All Eyes on PCE and Jobless Claims This Week

This week’s calendar isn’t packed, but the releases that matter could pack a punch. Thursday’s jobless claims (12:30 GMT) will be critical now that Powell has shifted the Fed’s short-term focus to employment. Last week’s number came in hot, so another strong print could delay easing hopes.

But the real spotlight lands on Friday’s Core PCE report—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A 0.3% monthly print is expected. If inflation cools while jobless claims stay elevated, gold could surge past $3409.43 and head toward the mid-$3400s.

Unless we get a surprise spike in inflation or a sharp drop in claims, the market is more likely than not to keep buying dips. With the dollar under pressure and the Fed softening its tone, gold has room to run.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.