Oil News: Crude Outlook Turns Positive with Sanctions Threat and Supply Disruptions

Crude Oil Holds Above 52-Week Moving Average as Geopolitics and Inventories Stir Bullish Sentiment

WTI crude closed the week at $63.66, up $1.68 or +2.71%, finishing on the strong side of its 52-week moving average at $63.36. That technical reclaim is meaningful—it shifts the tone to cautiously bullish after a string of failed rallies. Still, the market stalled just below long-term resistance at $64.56. Whether bulls can punch through that zone will likely determine if we make a run at the next pivots: $68.70 and the mid-July top at $69.69.

Ukraine War Disruptions, Sanctions Threats Rebuild Risk Premium

Geopolitical stress re-entered the crude market in a real way last week. Ukraine’s strikes on a major Russian refinery and the Unecha pumping station—key infrastructure on the Druzhba pipeline—halted flows to Hungary and Slovakia. Russia flatly rejected peace talks without terms, while the U.S. slapped a 25% tariff on Indian goods over its purchases of discounted Russian crude. Traders are now pricing in heightened risk of supply disruption out of Eastern Europe.

EIA Storage Draw Sends Bullish Signal—But Demand Concerns Linger

On the fundamental side, the 6 million barrel draw from U.S. crude inventories blew past expectations. The data suggests firm demand, though analysts noted that stronger refinery runs and export flows might be doing some heavy lifting. Meanwhile, softer U.S. rig activity and weak Q2 GDP out of Germany (-0.3%) are keeping the demand outlook murky, especially for European crude buyers.

Weekly Chart Points to $64.56 and $68.70—But Support Must Hold

WTI now sits in a technically sensitive zone. Staying above the 52-week MA at $63.36 keeps the bid intact, but bulls need a firm close above $64.56 to break this two-month range. A confirmed breakout could bring $68.70 and $69.69 into play. On the downside, the critical support range is $63.31 to $60.26. A break below $61.12 would be a big red flag and put the deeper support band at $51.18 to $50.36 in view.

Market Forecast: Bullish Above Support, Eyes on $64.56 Breakout

With inventories drawing down and geopolitical tensions on the rise, WTI has reasons to stay firm. But this market still needs a breakout above $64.56 to flip the switch. If that doesn’t happen soon, expect more range-bound chop. As long as we hold above the 52-week average, though, the bulls are in control—for now.

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