Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Breakout or Rejection? NFP Could Decide Trend

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $3,258 during Friday’s Asian session, recovering from a two-week low near $3,200. The move reflects cautious repositioning ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected to show just 130,000 jobs added in April—well below March’s 228,000.

With markets increasingly focused on signs of labor market cooling, gold is regaining favor as traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Silver Follows Gold Higher as Rate Cut Hopes Build

Silver (XAG/USD) tracked gold’s momentum, trading at $32.62 and reaching an intra-day high of $32.71. The metal is benefiting from renewed interest in precious metals amid softening U.S. macroeconomic data.

This week’s ADP employment report signaled weakening private-sector job growth, while initial jobless claims jumped to 241,000, marking the highest reading since February.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI also remained in contraction at 48.7, underscoring broad economic deceleration.

Stronger Dollar, Trade Talks Cap Upside Momentum

Despite the rally, gains in gold remain capped as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) holds near a three-week high. Optimism over renewed trade negotiations between the U.S. and China—following remarks from China’s Commerce Ministry—has lent support to the greenback, dampening safe-haven demand.

“The stronger dollar is temporarily capping gains in bullion,” said a Hong Kong-based metals strategist. “But if the NFP misses, we could see a breakout above $3,270.”

Markets Price in Four Fed Rate Cuts by Year-End

According to CME FedWatch Tool data, markets are now pricing in four 25-basis-point rate cuts by December. With inflation cooling and labor data softening, the Fed may be forced to act sooner than initially projected.

Today’s NFP report, particularly any surprise in the unemployment rate, forecast to hold at 4.2%, could become a pivotal trigger.

Should the jobs report disappoint, both gold and silver could gain further ground as investors accelerate their pivot toward non-yielding safe-haven assets. The market’s next move hinges not on geopolitical tensions—but on payroll figures and policy expectations.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver are consolidating below key resistance zones. A breakout above $3,268 in gold or $32.71 in silver could trigger bullish momentum if NFP data disappoints expectations.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is sitting at a decision point near $3,251, caught between a descending trendline and a zone of prior support turned resistance around $3,268. Price bounced off $3,201 and is now pressing against the 50-hour EMA at $3,252, with the 200-hour EMA higher up at $3,285. The structure shows a potential breakout if buyers can push through the confluence of resistance ahead.

A clean move above $3,268 could open the path toward $3,309 and possibly $3,352. But if price rejects here, especially with downward pressure from the trendline, we could revisit $3,220 or even retest $3,201.

For now, gold is consolidating within a tightening wedge. A breakout will likely come soon—what matters is whether buyers or sellers seize control. Keep an eye on the reaction around $3,268 to gauge the next move.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is stalling just below the $32.71 resistance, a zone reinforced by both the 200-hour EMA at $32.70 and a descending trendline that’s remained intact since late April. The bounce from $32.02 was strong, but now the rally looks tired as price hesitates at a confluence of overhead pressure. The 50-hour EMA at $32.50 is nearby, which may catch short-term dips, but momentum is clearly fading into resistance.

If sellers step in here, we could see a retracement toward $32.32, or even $32.02 if the breakdown gains traction. On the other hand, a firm close above $32.71 would shift momentum, with room to retest $33.11 or higher.

For now, this remains a “wait and see” spot. Silver needs to either break free from the downtrend or confirm that the bears still control the upper hand.