Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Caution Ahead of US Data as Metals Test Resistance

Market Overview

During the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the gold price (XAU/USD) managed to hold modest gains and was trading at the $3,345 level. However, the non-yielding yellow metal found some support from growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates in September.

However, easing geopolitical tensions and cautious investor sentiment ahead of key US economic data limited any significant upside. The white metal tracked gold’s modest rebound, supported by softer US Dollar sentiment amid Fed rate cut expectations. However, improving geopolitical conditions and cautious trading ahead of key US inflation data kept upside momentum in check.

Gold Supported by Fed Rate Cut Expectations but Lacks Bullish Momentum

Traders are increasingly betting on a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut next month, with at least two cuts expected by the end of 2025. This shift was driven by a string of weak US economic data, including the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report, which signaled a potential economic slowdown.

While these expectations kept the US Dollar from extending its recent gains, gold failed to capitalize strongly as market participants awaited fresh cues from upcoming US consumer inflation figures.

Easing Geopolitical Risks and Trade Truce Extension Cap Gains

Gold’s safe-haven appeal has been under pressure since Monday, as optimism grew over the extension of the US-China trade truce and progress toward peace talks between the US and Russia. President Donald Trump’s decision to extend the trade truce with China for another three months eased fears of an immediate trade war.

Moreover, hopes that Friday’s US-Russia summit could pave the way to ending the war in Ukraine further reduced demand for traditional risk-hedge assets like gold. Trump also reassured markets that gold would not face tariffs, though details remain unclear.

Investor Caution Ahead of Key US Data and Fed Speeches

Traders remain cautious ahead of a busy week for US economic releases, including Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and Friday’s Retail Sales data and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

In addition, comments from multiple Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members could shape short-term USD direction, thereby influencing gold prices.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold may hold above $3,340 short term, targeting $3,359–$3,382 if buyers return, while silver eyes $38.48 if it clears $37.95 resistance amid cautious sentiment.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating near $3,347, holding just above its $3,340 support after recent declines. The 50-EMA ($3,367) and 100-EMA ($3,363) remain overhead resistance, with upside capped unless buyers reclaim $3,359.

A break below $3,340 could expose $3,315 and $3,287, while sustained strength above $3,359 may open the path to $3,382 and $3,409. The RSI at 38 signals lingering bearish momentum, though oversold conditions could attract dip buyers.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $37.87, stabilizing after recent declines and finding support above $37.51. The 50-EMA ($37.91) and 100-EMA ($37.86) are acting as immediate resistance, with a breakout above $37.95 needed to target $38.48 and $38.97.

On the downside, a break below $37.51 could expose $37.03 and $36.38. The RSI at 46 suggests neutral momentum, with room for either direction depending on market catalysts.

Traders are watching upcoming U.S. economic data and broader risk sentiment for clues, as silver balances its dual role as an industrial metal and safe-haven asset in a choppy market environment.