Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: China Buying Supports Metals Amid Iran-Israel Conflict — Next Move?

Precious Metals Retain Structural Allure Amid Geopolitical and Macro Pressures

Gold fundamentals as of June 12, 2026 continue to be supported by steady central bank buying and safe-haven demand. The official sector has added to its net purchases of 244 tonnes during the first quarter, resuming buying activity in April, with both Poland and China active participants, while broader dollar diversification is likely being driven by continuing high levels of geopolitical and macro uncertainty.

Ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, including conflict-related incidents in the vicinity of the Hormuz Strait, high U.S. inflation data and high public debt levels are likely to underpin precious metals investing, while near term, a firmer Fed policy stance may provide some headwinds to gold. That said, analysts highlight continued upside from geopolitics, policy divergence and a debasement theme among gold buyers.

Silver fundamentals are a blend of industrial and precious metal demand. The market is poised to record another year (the sixth) of annual deficits of around 67 million ounces, driven by robust and increasing demand for solar panels, electronics and electric vehicles, which are increasingly being driven by artificial intelligence.

The supply outlook is constrained by mine supply with new capacity likely being restricted with most mine supply as a by-product of other metals activity. As volatile as silver is, it stands to benefit from all the tailwinds of gold while gaining exposure to green energy transition, making it attractive for the long term.

Gold Spot Rebounds to $4,188 – Fibonacci 0.236 Support Holds on the 2-Hour Chart

Gold is rebounding to $4,188. On the 2H timeframe, the bullish continuation candles are defending support at $4,104 along the Fibonacci 0.236 after the decline from the $4,364 resistance swing. The moving average at $4,194 is capping the upside while the descending channel in blue and the trendline in white continue to act as resistance.

Bullish wicks show prices being absorbed by the buyer. The relative strength index is sitting at 48 and has showed neutral momentum without being oversold. The volume profile highlights the $4,100 to $4,154 area as the support.

This is neutral to bearish below $4,194 and the price structure remains a declining channel from the high since the $4,575. Fib confluence levels show areas of support at least for now.

Long trade idea: Buy at $4,188, stop at $4,104, target $4,194.

Silver Spot Tests $66.90 – Long-Term Support Retest on the Daily Chart

Silver is testing $66.90. The daily timeframe is retesting strong support at $62.15, along the ascending blue trendline, as mixed price action has seen prices pull back from the rejection on the moving average at $68.53. The $72.47 resistance high has created a number of lower highs and distribution wicks but the highlighted Fib confluence 0.236 at $66.09 suggests buying in the area.

The relative strength index is sitting at 45 and has shown diminishing momentum although it has not been oversold. The volume profile highlights the $66 to $68 area as a pivot point as the white descending trendline continues to keep a lid on gains.

This is neutral to bearish below $68.53 and the overall price structure remains a descending channel from the high since February. Higher timeframe Fib extension levels would imply a target of $62, $58 if support fails.

Long trade idea: Buy at $66.90, stop at $65.50, target $68.53.