Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Caution, Tariffs Stoke Geopolitical Bids

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) advanced for a second straight session on Thursday, trading near $3,323 as investors moved into safe-haven assets amid mounting global trade tensions.

The renewed bid for gold followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of fresh tariffs targeting eight additional trading partners and a 50% tariff on copper imports effective August 1. Market participants reacted swiftly, pricing in heightened geopolitical risk and positioning away from risk-sensitive assets.

“Gold remains the default hedge in times of macro disruption,” noted a London-based commodities strategist, adding that “escalating trade policies are amplifying uncertainty in global supply chains.”

Fed Signals Inflation Concern, but Cuts Not Imminent

The Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes, released on Wednesday, showed that most policymakers remain concerned about inflation driven by tariffs. However, only “a couple” of officials favored cutting rates as early as July. Treasury yields softened in response, adding to gold’s tailwinds.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 68% chance of at least one rate cut by December, up from 60% earlier this week. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, such as gold, making the metal more attractive.

Silver Tracks Gold Gains but Faces Overhead Resistance

Silver (XAG/USD) also caught a bid, trading near $31.00, although gains were more restrained amid broader concerns about industrial demand. Technical analysts point to resistance near the $31.25–$31.50 region, with support forming at $30.10.

“Silver’s dual role as an industrial and monetary metal keeps it vulnerable to both economic softness and safe-haven flows,” said a New York-based metals analyst.

Market Focus Turns to Jobless Claims, Fed Commentary

Investors will be watching U.S. weekly jobless claims data and scheduled remarks from several Fed officials for further policy cues. A stronger labor market could delay easing, capping near-term upside in precious metals.

For now, gold must hold above $3,345 to maintain upward momentum, while silver needs a break above $31.50 to confirm a bullish continuation. Both metals remain sensitive to evolving macroeconomic headlines and shifting Federal Reserve expectations.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold eyes breakout above $3,330 as bullish momentum builds; silver tests key resistance near $36.86. Both metals await macro cues from Fed speeches and U.S. jobless claims data.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating near $3,325, trading just below a key resistance confluence formed by the 200-period EMA ($3,329.88) and the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle. The metal has held above the 50-EMA ($3,316.96), indicating that bullish momentum is gradually building.

A sustained move above $3,330 would signal a breakout from the triangle pattern, potentially opening the door toward the $3,345 and $3,363 resistance zones.

On the other hand, failing to clear the $3,330 ceiling could trigger a pullback, with initial support seen at $3,308. A break below that level exposes deeper downside toward $3,285 and $3,263.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $36.60 after rebounding from trendline support around $36.15. The metal has climbed back above both the 50-period EMA ($36.56) and the 200 EMA ($36.29), indicating growing bullish momentum. A descending triangle pattern had capped gains for several sessions, but recent price action suggests a breakout attempt is underway.

A decisive close above the $36.86 resistance could open the door toward $37.17 and $37.43 in the near term. On the downside, key support lies at $36.48 and $36.15. A break below that range would expose deeper losses, potentially reaching $35.91.