Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Cut Odds Hit 87% as Metals Hold Key Support

Market Overview

Gold and silver slipped on Monday after last week’s advance, with traders turning cautious ahead of a heavy US data calendar. This pullback comes even as expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut climbed to 87%, up from 71% just days earlier.

The shift reflects softer consumer spending, easing inflation components, and Fed officials acknowledging that economic activity is cooling. Lower rates typically support precious metals by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Yet gold and silver struggled to extend their gains, suggesting traders want clearer confirmation of a policy shift rather than relying solely on market-implied probabilities.

US Data and Geopolitical Tone Shape Short-Term Outlook

This week’s ISM Manufacturing PMI is the key release on deck. Forecasts point to a reading in the high-40s, still contractionary, but any upside surprise could strengthen the US dollar and pressure precious metals. A weaker print would reinforce the narrative of slowing economic momentum, offering renewed support for gold and silver.

A calmer geopolitical backdrop has also softened safe-haven interest. Recent diplomatic activity has reduced immediate concerns over supply disruptions or new global flashpoints, encouraging a more measured risk environment. Precious metals typically respond quickly to these shifts, and the reduced tension has removed one of the stronger drivers behind last week’s rally.

Overall, gold and silver enter the week in a balanced state, supported by rising rate-cut expectations, but tempered by subdued safe-haven demand and sensitivity to incoming US data.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is likely to hover between $4,180–$4,257 as traders await US data, while silver may consolidate near $56.00–$57.85, with momentum favoring a retest of $59.09 if support holds.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is holding its breakout momentum after pushing above the long-term descending trendline and reclaiming the $4,171 support zone. On the 2-hour chart, price continues to track a series of higher lows, supported by steady closes above the 50-EMA.

The latest push toward $4,257 printed a small upper wick, suggesting mild profit-taking rather than a reversal. RSI remains elevated near 66 but shows no bearish divergence, keeping momentum intact for now.

If gold pulls back, the $4,171–$4,180 region aligns with both the trendline retest and the rising short-term structure. As long as price holds above this zone, buyers retain the advantage with $4,307 as the next upside area to watch.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is consolidating just below the $57.85 resistance after an extended bullish run that lifted price more than $5 from late-November support. The 4-hour chart shows a clear higher-low structure, supported by steady closes above the 50-EMA and a rising long-term trendline.

The latest candle printed a long upper wick near resistance, signalling buyers are easing off as RSI trades above 70 and begins to flatten, hinting at stretched momentum.

If silver pulls back, the $55.99–$56.00 zone marks the first layer of support and aligns with short-term EMA cushioning. As long as price holds this band, the broader uptrend remains intact, opening room for a retest of $59.09 in the days ahead.