Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Signals and Tariffs Shape Outlook

Market Overview

Gold prices eased during Thursday’s Asian session, retreating from near a three-week peak of $3,337 as the U.S. dollar regained traction and traders tempered expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Silver followed suit, hovering near the $37.82 mark, weighed by diminishing safe-haven flows and technical consolidation.

Dollar Strength Undermines Metal Demand

The rebound in the U.S. dollar was triggered by President Donald Trump’s dismissal of rumors he planned to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell. “I have no intention of firing Jay Powell,” Trump said during a press briefing late Wednesday, which helped stabilize markets and reduced pressure on the dollar.

Simultaneously, Fed policymakers signaled limited urgency for easing. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan cited tariff-related inflation risks, while the New York Fed’s John Williams noted that current policy remains appropriate, given labor strength and stable growth.

These statements pushed back expectations for a rate cut until at least September. CME FedWatch data reflects a 63% probability of a 25bps cut by the September meeting, down from 78% last week.

Gold Holds Ground Amid Tariff Risks, Flat PPI Print

Despite the pullback, gold remains supported by geopolitical tension and lingering tariff threats. Trump’s recent notification of new tariffs affecting 25 countries, effective August 1, has clouded global trade expectations. This keeps the downside limited for non-yielding assets like gold.

Economic data remains mixed. The June U.S. Producer Price Index came in flat versus expectations of a 0.1% rise, hinting at subdued inflation and potentially giving the Fed room to act later in the year.

Meanwhile, markets await Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index due Thursday.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver remain rangebound amid firmer Fed tone and tariff uncertainty. Near-term bias leans bearish unless gold reclaims $3,342 and silver breaks $38.03 to signal renewed upside momentum.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold has broken below its 50- and 200-period EMAs on the 2-hour chart, now trading near $3,331 after rejecting resistance at $3,342. Immediate support sits at $3,324, followed by a more significant zone near $3,310.

The ascending channel has been invalidated, and short-term momentum appears to favor sellers unless price reclaims the EMA cluster above. If bearish pressure continues, a move toward $3,291 could follow.

To shift the bias back upward, bulls must regain $3,342 and establish support above it. Until then, risk remains tilted to the downside.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is hovering around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $37.69 after a sharp rally and subsequent consolidation. The 50-period EMA has flattened, while the 200 EMA holds below as broader trend support. Price remains trapped between $38.03 resistance (38.2% Fib) and $37.36 (61.8% Fib support).

A clean break above $38.03 could open the way to $38.44 or $38.74, while sustained rejection and a close below $37.69 may drag it toward $37.36 or $36.88.

The current structure shows signs of indecision, with price coiling just above mid-Fibonacci support. A decisive move is likely once price escapes this tight range.