Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Focus Turns to Powell, PPI After Sharp Drop

Market Overview

Gold prices declined for a second straight day in Thursday’s Asian session, falling below the $3,150 level for the first time in over a month. The move marks the third negative close in four sessions, as market sentiment shifts in response to receding Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and easing global trade risks. Silver followed suit, dipping to $31.76 before hovering near $31.97.

U.S. Treasury Yields Climb as Fed Signals Patience

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.52%, its highest in a month, as investors reduced their bets on aggressive policy easing. Markets now anticipate just 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025—down sharply from over 100 bps expected in April.

The repricing comes on the back of softer inflation readings and repeated signals from Fed officials that they are prepared to hold rates steady.

“We can afford to be patient,” said San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reinforced that view, citing ongoing uncertainty in trade policy as a reason for caution.

Trade Truce Curbs Safe-Haven Demand for Precious Metals

The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has further dampened demand for traditional safe-haven assets. A 90-day tariff freeze and prospects of direct talks between Presidents Biden and Xi have helped calm recession fears, shifting investor focus toward equities and yield-bearing assets.

Even with persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, gold has failed to attract meaningful defensive flows—a notable shift from prior market behavior.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver remain under bearish pressure, with gold eyeing $3,103 support and silver vulnerable to further losses below $31.66 amid weak momentum and rising yields.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is under heavy pressure, trading at $3,134 after rejecting the $3,168 resistance zone and extending its descent within a well-defined downward channel. Price has been respecting this bearish structure for over a week, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows.

The recent bearish engulfing candle near the upper channel boundary reaffirmed selling interest, and now price is pushing deeper toward $3,103—a key horizontal support. The 50 EMA at $3,236 remains untouched as downside momentum dominates.

No bullish divergence is visible yet, and candles lack reversal characteristics—no hammer, no morning star. If the $3,103 level cracks, next major support sits at $3,066. Until bulls break the channel or reclaim $3,168, bears remain firmly in control.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) has broken decisively below the $31.97 support zone, currently trading at $31.79, and is now pressing into an area with limited historical support until $31.66.

What makes this move significant is the clean breakdown beneath both the horizontal level and the ascending trendline from earlier this month—effectively invalidating the short-term bullish structure.

Price is also trading below the 50 EMA ($32.45), and the recent candles show strong bearish momentum without hesitation—no hammers, no indecision. If $31.66 fails to hold, eyes shift to $31.48 and $31.31 as next key levels.