Natural Gas Price Forecast: Gas Prices Pause, But Sellers Maintain Control

Natural Gas Trades Quietly but Remains Bearish

Natural gas paused on Wednesday, consolidating within a very narrow band of $2.73 to $2.78. Despite the subdued action, sellers remained firmly in control. Price held above Tuesday’s low of $2.73, but resistance near prior trend lows capped any intraday strength. Importantly, the day’s range unfolded within the lower quarter of Tuesday’s wide-range decline, reinforcing bearish pressure. By session’s end, the close below the former trend low of $2.76 confirmed the continuation of the bearish trend.

Bears Hold Momentum

Wednesday’s muted bounce underscores the prevailing downside bias. Downward pressure has remained steady, and the inability to rally highlights persistent selling. For natural gas to demonstrate meaningful strength, a rally above the minor swing low of $2.97 would be needed. Until that occurs, the trend remains tilted lower, with additional bearish targets now in view.

ABCD Patterns Guide Downside Targets

A decisive break below $2.73 would expose the next potential support derived from a 100% measured move of a smaller ABCD pattern, projecting to $2.63. While this level holds technical significance, the lack of confluence from other indicators suggests limited reliability. More compelling is the broader support zone between $2.54 and $2.51. This area combines multiple signals, including a 127.2% projection from the smaller ABCD pattern and a 78.6% projection from a larger ABCD structure anchored at this year’s peak. The overlap of these Fibonacci-based levels strengthens the case for this confluence zone to act as a magnet for price if weakness persists.

Resistance Levels to Watch

On the upside, near-term resistance sits around the 20-Day moving average, currently at $2.98. This level aligns with a long-term anchored VWAP measured from the 2024 bottom, adding weight to its significance. The AVWAP, which acted as support earlier in the year, now joins the 20-Day average as a likely lid for any rallies within the ongoing downtrend.

Outlook

Natural gas continues to trade under bearish control, with Wednesday’s quiet session doing little to shift momentum. A breakdown below $2.73 would open the door to lower Fibonacci-based targets, with $2.54–$2.51 standing out as the next key confluence zone. Until buyers can push price back above $2.97, the bears remain firmly in charge.

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