If whale activity is any reflection of sentiment, developments on Wednesday, August 20, highlighted underlying investor optimism.
XRP bounced back amid rising optimism over the SEC approving pending XRP-spot ETF applications in the next two months. Delays to the approval of spot ETFs had weighed on sentiment following the SEC and Ripple Joint Stipulation of Dismissal filing on August 7.
Once the US Court of Appeals approves the request to withdraw the parties’ appeals, the door would open for the SEC to approve the spot ETFs.
However, approvals remain unlikely before October, given that the SEC has delayed other crypto-spot ETF applications. The SEC has been working, in coordination with exchanges, on a listing standard for token-based ETFs. BlackRock (BLK), which dominates the crypto ETF space, met with the SEC’s Crypto Task Force in May to discuss ETF approval standards.
Since BlackRock’s meeting, news broke of plans for a standardized crypto ETF framework. All three exchanges filed 19b-4s in July. Cboe, Nasdaq, and NYSE requested rule changes that would enable Commodity-Based Trust Shares to list and trade under a standardized framework.
Since the SEC is working in coordination with exchanges, July’s rule change requests suggest prior agreement with the agency on the framework. Approval of the 19b-4s could expedite the approval of pending XRP-spot ETFs. Crucially, BlackRock may also launch an iShares XRP Trust under a standardized framework, avoiding the lengthy delays experienced during previous filings.
Whale activity underscored optimism about the eventual launch of XRP-spot ETFs. On-chain data revealed a surge in whale activity, with 900 million XRP acquired within 48 hours, the largest scoop since June 2025.
XRP rallied 3.18% on Wednesday, August 20, partially reversing Tuesday’s 6.56% loss to close at $2.9530. The token outperformed the broader market, which rose 2.46%, lifting the total crypto market cap to $3.83 trillion.
In the near-term, XRP’s price outlook hinges on several key catalysts, including:
Potential scenarios:
Explore our full XRP forecast here for key breakout zones and timing insights.
While XRP rebounded on optimism over spot ETF approvals, Bitcoin (BTC) steadied but fell short of the key $115,000 level for the first time since August 2. Investors remained cautious ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s highly anticipated speech on Friday, August 22.
Overnight, on August 20, the FOMC Meeting Minutes highlighted members’ concerns about tariffs, inflation, and the labor market. July’s producer and import price trends potentially showed the early effects of tariffs on US inflation. Producer prices soared 3.3% year-on-year after rising 2.4% in June. Meanwhile, import prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing June’s 0.1% decline.
Why does the Fed’s interest rate guidance affect BTC?
Borrowing costs could remain elevated, and the US dollar may strengthen if the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged. Delayed rate cuts would impact BTC’s store of value status. Conversely, Fed Chair Powell’s support for multiple Fed rate cuts could weaken the US dollar, lower borrowing costs, and boost demand for BTC and other risk assets.
Despite BTC steadying on Wednesday, uncertainty about Fed Chair Powell’s stance on monetary policy weighed on demand for BTC-spot ETFs. According to Farside Investors, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported total net outflows of $523.3 million on August 19, the largest since $812.3 million of outflows on August 1. On Wednesday, August 20, the US BTC-spot ETF market could extend the outflow streak to four sessions. Key flows included:
With BlackRock (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) flow data pending, total US BTC-spot ETF outflows reached $95.9 million. Snapping a four-day outflow streak hinges on IBIT.
BTC gained 1.27% on Wednesday, August 20, partially reversing the previous day’s 2.94% loss to close at $114,306.
Looking ahead, several key events may influence the near-term price trajectory. These include:
Potential scenarios:
Traders should closely monitor the following key developments to determine whether XRP and BTC rebound:
See where analysts expect XRP and BTC to head as legal and political risks evolve.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.