XRP surged 5.44% to close at a seven-week high of $2.4712 on Saturday, May 10, following speculation that BlackRock (BLK) may file an XRP-spot ETF application. Crypto enthusiast Amelie posted a letter from BlackRock to the SEC, stating:
“BlackRock meets with the SEC crypto task force to discuss ETF approval standards. BlackRock XRP ETF is coming soon!”
The letter underscored BlackRock’s plans to launch additional crypto-spot ETFs, with requests to discuss:
Crypto America host and journalist Eleanor Terrett highlighted the shift in the SEC’s stance on crypto, stating:
“The second meeting with BlackRock today marks the Crypto Task Force’s 99th meeting with industry participants. Nearly 100 meetings since February. What a stark contrast to the last four years.”
Despite growing speculation, BlackRock has remained silent on any XRP-spot ETF plans since debunking a fake iShares XRP-spot ETF Trust filing in November 2023. The event, which triggered a pump-and-dump rally, likely forced the ETF issuer to delay plans pending the outcome of the SEC vs. Ripple case.
Still, BlackRock’s participation in an XRP-spot ETF market could significantly influence XRP demand and price trends. Since launching in January 2024, its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has recorded inflows of $44,711 million, dwarfing the $11,726 million amassed by Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC).
This week, the SEC filed settlement letter with the courts, requesting Judge Analisa Torres to lift the injunction prohibiting XRP sales to institutional investors and reduce the $125 million penalty. If approved, both parties would drop their appeals, potentially ending the long-running legal battle and paving the way for ETF progress.
Polymarket places the approval odds of an XRP-spot ETF approval by December 2025 at 77%, up from 68% on April 22 but down from 87% on March 23.
XRP’s near-term path hinges on Judge Torres’ ruling, the SEC’s appeal plans, and XRP-spot ETF-related developments.
If the SEC drops its appeal, XRP could target its all-time high of $3.5505, with ETF approval potentially fueling a rally toward $5. However, if the court denies the SEC’s settlement request and the agency pursues its appeal, XRP may drop toward $1.50.
XRP trades above the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), signaling bullish momentum.
A breakout above the May 11 high of $2.4813 could signal a move toward the March 19 high of $2.5925. A decisive move through $2.5925 may enable the bulls to target $3 and the 2025 high of $3.3999.
On the downside, a drop below the 50-day EMA could expose the 200-day EMA and the $1.9299 support level.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 63.30, suggesting room for XRP to rise to $3 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).
XRP remains highly sensitive to external catalysts. It previously surged to $3.3999 on optimism surrounding the Ripple case and pro-crypto signals from Donald Trump.
Still, broader macro headwinds—rising trade tensions, recession fears—continue to influence risk assets.
Looking ahead, regulatory clarity, SEC posture, Ripple’s legal path, and ETF filings will remain the primary drivers of XRP’s performance.
Click here for expert XRP price forecasts and upcoming SEC deadlines.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.