Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Dips to $4,780 as Hormuz Blockade Reasserts – Is a Surge to $5,000 Next?

Market Overview

Both metals took a hit today as US-Iran tensions suddenly reversed all the optimism that had been building up from last week. Iran has grabbed back control of the Strait of Hormuz, after briefly declaring it open, amidst a whole load of incidents – the US naval seizure of an Iranian ship, ship to ship incidents & the threat of Iranian retaliation. And its all happening just as the fragile ceasefire that was set to expire back in early April looks more and more like it’ll be coming to an end – with President Trump making it clear that he doesn’t reckon chances of extending it are all that high.

Higher oil prices because of the fear of supply disruptions are starting to worry people about inflation all over again, which has in turn made the US dollar a lot stronger and lifted bond yields – and that’s a double whammy for non-interest bearing precious metals, even though they’re still pretty safe places to put your money.

Gold is feeling the pinch from all these big picture changes, but despite that, central banks making buys and long term investors taking a diversified approach are still providing a nice bit of support – that is, as long as they keep on buying. Silver, on the other hand, is getting caught up in all the drama because of its industrial exposure, think solar panels, EVs & electronics to name a few. And to top it off its got a 6th consecutive year of having less supply than it needs, along with tight inventories – which means the fundamentals are actually quite bullish.

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD Consolidates Near $4,780 Before Breakout

Gold is poking around $4,780, stuck within an incredibly tight consolidative range just above the up-trending support line. The price is still nursing itself above the 50-day EMA, and slowly closing in on the 200-day EMA, which might just signal that we’re about to see some real change in momentum on the medium-term view.

Looking at the chart and you see the higher lows are all still intact – but that $4,890 resistance level is still very much in play, capping the upside. We’ve seen some pretty indecisive candles recently – the smaller body size tells us there’s just not much conviction out there before a big breakout.

At the moment, the RSI is stuck in neutral – which tells me there’s plenty of room for this price to go either way from here. If we finally break above that $4,890 mark, it’s perfectly possible we’ll see a bit of a rip towards $5,000 and $5,120 – but if we fall back below $4,750, its very likely we’ll see the price drop down towards $4,670 support.

Silver Price Outlook: XAGUSD Holds $78.00 Support Within Rising Structure

Silver is sagging around $79.00, clinging on to that $78.00 to $77.80 support zone and the up-trending trendline – just about. The price action so far has been showing us a series of higher lows, which is pretty encouraging for a developing bull story, even with this recent dip below $82.00 resistance.

The 50 EMA is slowly but surely going upwards, and at the same time is converging with the 200 EMA – which hints that a bullish crossover may well be on the cards. However, those rejection candles at $82.00 are a pretty clear warning that sellers are still looking for an in. The RSI has taken a bit of a breather after getting overbought, but I wouldn’t say that quite yet amounts to a reversal.

If we finally break through to the other side of $82.00, then $85.00 is right on the horizon – but if we lose that $78.00 support, then I reckon we might be looking at a bit of a pull back towards $75.50.