Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Inflation Pressure vs Fed Policy—What’s Next?

Market Overview

Gold and silver markets saw renewed support as global investors positioned for heightened uncertainty tied to emerging trade tensions. Fresh tariff announcements targeting pharmaceutical imports and industrial commodities have reignited concerns over inflation and supply chain disruptions, prompting capital flows into traditional safe-haven assets.

The geopolitical backdrop has grown more complex, with investors bracing for broader economic fallout and reduced global trade efficiency, particularly as additional tariffs threaten to weigh on producer costs across key sectors.

Safe-haven flows into precious metals remain driven by the market’s desire for assets with intrinsic value and stability during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. Market participants continue to monitor evolving tariff developments for signals of a potential second wave of cost-push inflation.

Federal Reserve’s Cautious Tone Keeps Policy Outlook in Focus

Even as demand for safe assets strengthens, the Federal Reserve’s firm stance on maintaining restrictive monetary policy has tempered broader enthusiasm in the metals space. Recent inflation data—highlighted by a 0.3% monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index and a rise in the core rate to 2.9%—underscored persistent price pressures in the U.S. economy.

The data has reinforced expectations that the Fed is unlikely to pivot to rate cuts in the near term.

Comments from key policymakers have added clarity to the discussion. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that monetary policy decisions remain finely balanced, with inflation risks still elevated.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan warned that easing too early could undermine the Fed’s ability to stabilize prices, particularly in the face of new inflationary catalysts, such as tariffs.

Looking Ahead: Inflation Indicators and Central Bank Signals in Focus

Investors now turn their attention to upcoming producer inflation data and further commentary from central bank officials. These inputs will likely shape the medium-term outlook for monetary policy and, by extension, the role of gold and silver as hedges against financial instability.

While geopolitical risks remain a key support factor, the trajectory of U.S. interest rates continues to define the ceiling for upside in precious metals.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold eyes downside toward $3,310 and $3,291 unless it reclaims $3,342. Silver holds above $37.70 support, with resistance at $38.03 and upside targets near $38.44 and $39.11.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,337 after breaking below its rising channel, indicating a loss of bullish control. The 2-hour chart shows price stuck below both the 50- and 200-period EMAs, with the 50 EMA now acting as resistance near $3,339.

A horizontal barrier at $3,342 is also capping upside attempts, while support at $3,324 is holding for now. A sustained drop below $3,324 could expose $3,310 and then $3,291 as downside targets.

Unless bulls push the price back above $3,342 and reclaim the EMAs, momentum is likely to remain tilted to the downside. Overall, the structure favors consolidation with a bearish bias until a clear breakout occurs.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is attempting to stabilize above the $37.70 level after a steep pullback from the recent high near $39.11. The price is holding above the 50-period EMA and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally, suggesting that bullish momentum remains intact for now.

The ascending trendline from July 9 continues to offer support, while the 0.382 Fib at $38.03 is acting as resistance. A sustained move above this zone could open the door to $38.44 and retest the swing high.

If buyers fail to maintain the current structure, the next key support rests at $37.36 and $36.88. Overall, silver remains technically supported unless $37.36 breaks decisively.