Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Traders Watch $3,658 and $42.45 for Breakout Cues

Market Overview

Gold began the week cautiously but quickly regained footing as traders positioned ahead of major central bank announcements. The precious metal continues to draw strength from expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will ease policy more aggressively in the months ahead.

Market pricing, tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, points to a 100% probability of a rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day meeting this Wednesday. Investors also expect additional cuts in October and December, a shift fueled by weaker U.S. labor market data.

The prospect of lower rates has pushed Treasury yields lower and weighed on the dollar, both of which enhance gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.

“Gold remains supported by the dual forces of falling yields and a softer dollar,” said one commodities strategist. “The upcoming Fed meeting is critical in setting the tone for the fourth quarter.”

Silver Mirrors Gold’s Safe-Haven Role

Silver has traded broadly in line with gold, showing modest gains as investors favor defensive positions amid heightened uncertainty. The white metal is supported by safe-haven flows as well as its dual role as both a precious and industrial commodity.

Analysts note that silver often amplifies moves in gold during periods of macro stress, with investor positioning reflecting this correlation. The softer dollar and subdued bond yields are adding to the tailwinds, while volatility across energy markets has contributed to defensive buying.

Geopolitical Risks Add Underlying Support

Beyond monetary policy, broader geopolitical risks continue to underpin demand for precious metals. Renewed strikes on energy infrastructure in Eastern Europe have increased concerns about supply disruptions and sanctions, while tensions in the Middle East remain elevated.

Although broader risk sentiment in equities has been resilient, investors are maintaining exposure to gold and silver as insurance against unforeseen shocks. With central bank meetings lined up across the U.S., Canada, the U.K., and Japan this week, traders are waiting for fresh policy guidance to determine the next major move.

“Markets are cautious, not bearish,” one analyst observed. “Gold and silver are consolidating, but the backdrop of falling yields and geopolitical risks keeps demand intact.”

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is consolidating at $3,644, supported by a weaker dollar and Fed cut bets. A break above $3,658 targets $3,674–$3,688, while Silver holds $42.27, eyeing $42.78–$43.09 if momentum extends.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading at $3,644, holding just above trendline support drawn from the September lows. The 50-period EMA at $3,631 is acting as near-term support, while the 200-period EMA at $3,534 remains a deeper floor. Resistance is seen at $3,658, where price has repeatedly stalled.

Recent candles show consolidation, with buyers stepping in near $3,639, reinforcing the trendline. The RSI sits around 53, reflecting neutral momentum without strong directional bias.

A close above $3,658 could clear the path toward $3,674 and $3,688, while a drop below $3,626 risks a deeper pullback toward $3,613. Traders are watching for volume to confirm the next move.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading at $42.27, consolidating near the top of its ascending channel. The metal is holding above the 50-period EMA at $41.57 and remains well above the 200-period EMA at $40.38, keeping the broader trend positive. Immediate resistance is at $42.45, with the next target at $42.78 if buyers push higher.

On the downside, support lies at $41.98, followed by $41.67, levels that align with the midline of the channel. The RSI is at 67, close to overbought territory, suggesting momentum is strong but vulnerable to short-term pullbacks.

A breakout above $42.45 could open the way toward $43.09, while a rejection risks a dip back toward $41.98.