Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Triangle Setups Hold as Markets Eye NFP Risk

Market Overview

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, the Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to stop its previous session’s bearish rally and remained depressed around the 4,463 level, hitting an intraday low of 4,452. However, the main reason behind this decline was the stronger US dollar, which gained traction following the release of US weekly labor market data.

It is worth mentioning that the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that Initial Jobless Claims rose modestly to 208,000 in the week ended January 3, slightly below market expectations of 210,000 but above the previous week’s revised 200,000. Hence, this is slightly positive for the dollar, as jobless claims remain low, indicating a resilient labor market.

Meanwhile, Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at 76.55, down 0.56% for the day. However, the stronger US dollar was seen as a key reason behind its decline. Traders seems hesitate to place any strong bid ahead of key US jobs data.

US Dollar Strength and Fed Rate Hopes Keep Gold in Check

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remains strong and reaching a near one-month high. Although, ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve can limit any further gains ahead of the closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls report due later today.

Notably, the US economy is expected to add around 60,000 jobs in December, slightly fewer than the previous month, while the unemployment rate is forecast to ease to 4.5%. These numbers will influence expectations for Fed rate cuts and likely affect moves in the US dollar and gold.

Global Conflicts and Political Moves Boost Gold as a Safe Haven

Across the ocean, the ongoing geopolitical tensions around the world are also helping to support gold prices. For example, the US involvement in Venezuela, ongoing tensions between China and Japan, and the long-running Russia-Ukraine war making investors cautious and boosting gold’s appeal as a safe haven. This can help gold and silver prices to limit their losses.

At the same time, US President Donald Trump said the US could be involved in Venezuela for years to access its oil resources. Meanwhile, China has tightened export controls on rare earth materials to Japan following diplomatic disagreements.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold near $4,470 may grind higher toward $4,520 if support holds, while silver around $77 targets $82.60, with dollar strength limiting upside near-term ahead of US jobs data release risk.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,474 on the 2-hour chart, consolidating below a descending trendline drawn from the $4,550 peak. Price action remains constructive, with higher lows supported by an ascending trendline from the late-December low near $4,275, forming a tightening triangle structure. Recent candlesticks show smaller bodies and mixed wicks, signaling indecision rather than distribution.

The 50-period MA near $4,450 is turning higher, while the 200-period MA around $4,375 continues to anchor the broader uptrend. RSI holds near 55, pointing to mild bullish momentum.  The trade idea is buy near $4,430, target $4,520, stop below $4,395.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $77.25 on the 2-hour chart, holding above a rising trendline that has guided the uptrend since mid-December. Price rebounded from the $75.10–$74.10 demand zone, where multiple lower wicks signal active dip-buying rather than breakdown pressure.

The structure remains bullish within an ascending channel, while resistance is capped near $82.60, a prior supply zone. The 50-period MA is flattening just below price, and the 200-period MA near $72.50 continues to support the broader trend.

RSI is recovering toward 50, showing momentum stabilization. The trade idea is to buy near $75.20, target $82.60, stop below $73.80.