Gold’s Price Outlook: Is Today’s Price Action Enough to Turn Gold Around?

Gold Forecast Video for 15.09.23 by Bruce Powers

Gold fell to a new trend low today after falling below the lower uptrend line. It found support at a low of 1,901, just shy of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1,900. Close enough to considered to be complete. Price action responded in that way, nevertheless. Gold rallied off the low and is set to close near the session’s opening. This positions gold to end the day with a bullish hammer candlestick pattern.

1,931 Swing High Needs to be Exceeded for Gold to be Back on Track

It is possible that today’s low completes the retracement for gold. If so, then a decisive rally above today’s high of 1,913 is the first signal for a possible bullish reversal. It would then be heading up into potential resistance marked by the 34-Day EMA, currently at 1,924. However, gold needs to get above the recent internal swing high of 1,931 before it becomes clearer that the retracement is over, and a new advance has the potential to keep rising. Once it does that the possibility of reaching higher price zones increases.

Of course, the first subsequent target would then be around the swing high of 1,953. A daily close above that high will further confirm the continuation of the rising trend. Once that happens, there would be both a higher swing low and higher swing high when starting from the August swing low of 1,885.

What if Gold Keeps Falling?

Concurrent with the potentially bullish hammer candle pattern gold is looking like it will close below resistance represented by the lower uptrend line. If it continues to weaken rather than strengthen, lower target zones may be approached. A drop below today’s low of 1,901 has gold next targeting a relatively large price range from 1,893 to 1,883. It includes two swing lows (1,893, 1,885), the completion of a standard falling ABCD pattern (1,893), and an ABCD pattern with the CD leg extended by 127.2%. Normally, the CD leg of the pattern matches the price change in the AB leg. The extended version of the CD leg is 127.2% times the distance in the AB leg.

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