Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental – November 18, 2015 – Forecast – Copper & Palladium

Analysis and Recommendations:

Copper continued to fall touching 2.104 down 12 points as copper producers continue increasing the supply while Palladium fell $4 to 547.55 as auto sales retreat which is the main demand for the metal. Copper price and most industrial metals fell to the lowest since May 2009 as demand concerns loom large. This prompted Codelco, world’s largest producer, to cut the premium charged to Chinese buyers by the most since the financial crisis. More hints from the US and Eurozone will emerge via U.S. Industrial production data and Eurozone’s construction output tomorrow.

Prices sank over 4 per cent on track for its biggest one-day loss in four months, as selling accelerated mid-morning in Asia, leading London Metal Exchange benchmark prices lower and deeper into the market’s biggest rout in years.

Metals are being battered by a stronger dollar. The greenback is buoyed by expectations for the first US interest-rate increase since 2006 in December and by heightened geopolitical risk after the terror attacks in Paris. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% on Tuesday, making assets denominated in the currency more expensive.

The trigger was not immediately clear, but some traders attributed it to stop losses after prices in Shanghai pierced the 35,000 yuan mark, while others said it was a combination of relentless bearish news out of China.

On Monday, Chile’s Codelco offered customers in the world’s second-largest economy a more than 25 per cent drop in premiums for their contracts next year, the latest sign of the weakening long-term outlook for the industry.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 11:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 11:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus