Local Top in Bitcoin Soon?

The Expected Rally Exceeded Expectations

In our last update on Bitcoin (BTC), from almost a month ago, we found that based on our Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count,

“…BTC should now be in (grey) W-a of green W-2. … Typically, a correction’s first leg (W-a) reaches around the 38.20% retracement of the previous same-degree impulsive advance. …, and currently, BTC’s price is right about there. … Thus, we should expect a “dead cat bounce,” the grey W-b, which typically retraces 50-76.40% of the W-a, … that would mean $45.0 +/- 1.5K.

Once (grey) W-b is complete, the third and final leg, W-c, should materialize. C-waves are often fast and furious and relate to the previous W-a as 1x a to 1.618x a. … These typical Fibonacci-based relationships target $35+/-1K, which matches the aforementioned W-2 target zone of $37.5+/-2.5K.”

Fast-forward, and BTC did indeed bottom that same day we posted our update. However, instead of peaking at around $45+/-1.5K, the crypto continued to rally impulsively, i.e., five waves higher and currently trades at $51.5K. See Figure 1 below. Thus, although our call for an imminent low and rally was correct, the rally exceeded expectations. So, what does this mean for BTC going forward?

In our previous update, we also shared that,

“The dotted horizontal lines on the chart in Figure 1 show what we call “warning levels” for, in this case, the Bears. Above the blue dotted line at $42,140 is the first signal that grey W-b is underway. The grey line at $43525 is the second signal, etc. Each higher level/signal increases the odds that W-b is underway. If BTC’s price moves above the red dotted line, the January 11 high, it tells us that the W-3 is likely already underway.”

Thus, as always, “forewarned is forearmed,” and it pays to stay informed more often than once or twice a month, as we now assess BTC’s price action as most likely completing another more minor 1^st wave. See figure 1 below.

In this case, all of the green W-2 already bottomed on January 23^rd as a simple, rather direct zigzag, and from that low, another 1^st wave, grey W-i materialized. This grey W-i needs, ideally, one more orange W-5, preferably $56+/1.5K. From there, we anticipated a brief correction, grey W-ii, to ~$47+/1K before W-iii of -3 of –iii of –3 kicks in, likely targeting new All-time Highs.

Alternative Scenarios

Since we can only provide the potential paths, we know that a drop below the January low would be concerning and suggests BTC will target the 2023 highs at around $31-32K before it can move higher. For now, we view that as a less likely scenario. Thus, our main alternative is that BTC has already put in the grey W-i top, heading for $44-45K first. See Figure 2 below.

As in our previous work, we have the colored warning levels to tell us if this is the case, and BTC will have to, at least, move below the grey level at $48337 to say that the W-ii is underway. And the red level (the January 23 low) must always hold, or else we will likely see the previously mentioned $31-32K level first before BTC can stage its next meaningful rally.

Thus, as stated in all our prior articles the past year, “We have been Bullish on BTC for quite some time … However, our Bullish scenario is entirely invalidated below $25K. Only when that happens will we change our overall, longer-term Bullish POV, which BTC is proving more correct for each update we provide in that, based on BTC’s past cycles, made up of four more minor phases, it is currently in the “Mid Bull” phase and thus close to the next Bull run, which can target $100-200+K by the end of 2025.”