XRP (XRP) is flashing a classic bullish setup on the charts just as macro and onchain forces quietly align in its favor, setting the stage for a potential breakout move in July that traders may be underpricing.
XRP Eyes Breakout as Falling Wedge Pattern Tightens
XRP is approaching the apex of a falling wedge pattern on the 3-day chart, increasing the likelihood of a decisive breakout in July.
The structure, defined by converging trendlines, typically signals a bullish continuation if confirmed. At present, XRP is trading near $2.23, hovering between the wedge’s resistance and support lines.
A breakout above the upper trendline could target the $2.92 and $3.63 levels, depending on the breakout’s timing and strength.
Volume has remained relatively stable during the wedge’s formation, while the RSI (relative strength index) sits near neutral at 50.57, leaving room for a directional move.
Notably, XRP continues to hold above its 50-period (red) and 200-period (blue) exponential moving averages (EMAs), reinforcing the bullish bias.
However, XRP could continue consolidating within the wedge throughout July without a strong market catalyst. A breakdown below wedge support risks a drop toward $1.82.
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See all Ripple forecastsAre XRP Fundamentals Supportive of a July Rally?
Broader macro conditions are tilting in XRP’s favor.
Equities have started Q3 on a strong note, buoyed by rising odds of the US Federal Reserve cutting rates by September. A shift to easier monetary policy tends to weaken the US dollar and redirect capital into higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
As a risk asset, XRP stands to benefit from this environment. A weaker dollar increases the appeal of alternative currencies like XRP, especially among investors looking to diversify from traditional fiat exposure.
From a blockchain network perspective, XRP has witnessed a flurry of major updates in recent weeks.
- June 30: XRP Ledger launched its Ethereum-compatible EVM sidechain on the mainnet, enabling Ethereum DApps to run on XRPL, expanding its DeFi and interoperability capabilities
- June 24: The v2.5.0 protocol upgrade launched, introducing transaction batching, permissioned DEX, token escrow, and enhanced compliance features, positioning XRPL as an institutional-ready DeFi platform
- June 19: XRPL introduced XAO DAO, a decentralized governance platform, moving toward community-controlled protocol development
- June 12: USDC, one of the world’s largest stablecoins, launched natively on XRP Ledger, boosting enterprise payment and DeFi infrastructure
These macro tailwinds, however, haven’t translated into a noticeable uptick in new trader participation.
Onchain data shows that the number of newly created addresses on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) has remained largely flat, suggesting a limited influx of fresh demand despite improving market conditions. The introduction of USDC stablecoin on XRPL may change that.
Realized Price Trends Reveal Aggressive XRP Accumulation
According to Glassnode, the realized price for short-term XRP holders (1w–3m) has surged well above the aggregated average. It indicates that recent buyers are entering the market at higher cost bases, showing confidence in sustained upside.
Meanwhile, long-term holder cohorts continue to trend upward, suggesting a steady accumulation phase rather than profit-taking.
In essence, smart money has been aggressively positioning into XRP since the Q4 2024 breakout, and they’re holding through consolidation, often a sign of underlying bullish conviction throughout July.
