Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH Risks 40% Drop As Whale Dumps $543M Holdings

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), faces a fresh downside test as a bear pennant tightens on the daily chart and a major whale shifts size to Binance.

Bear Pennant Keeps $1,200 ETH Price in Focus

ETH price saw a sharp February drop from above $2,800 to the $1,900–$2,000 area, creating the flagpole.

It has since compressed into a narrowing triangle, printing lower highs and slightly higher lows, a classic bear pennant that often breaks in the direction of the prior move.

The trend context stays weak. Ethereum price remains below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, which now act as overhead resistance. RSI has bounced off its lows but still sits below the neutral 50 level, signaling that buyers have not regained control.

A breakdown below pennant support near $1,950 would confirm bearish continuation.

The measured-move target from the flagpole points to roughly $1,200, implying about 40% downside from current levels. A sustained breakout above pennant resistance would invalidate the setup.

Garrett Jin Deposits $543M ETH to Binance

On-chain data tracked by Arkham shows wallets labeled “Garrett Jin” depositing 261,024 ETH (around $543 million) to Binance in several large tranches over minutes.

Arkham’s label does not confirm the wallet owner’s real-world identity, but it flags a cluster of addresses believed to be controlled by the same entity.

Transfers of this size to a centralized exchange typically raise sell-pressure risk because they move supply closer to spot liquidity, even if selling does not occur immediately.

Traders will watch whether the deposited ETH begins to distribute across exchange wallets or stays idle.

Visible sell-side activity would add pressure to an already bearish chart setup, while a lack of follow-through could limit downside and trigger a short-covering bounce if positioning turns too one-sided.

Ethereum Spot ETF Flows Remain a Headwind

Adding to the bearish setup, ETF flow data suggests the bid underneath crypto has thinned.

Glassnode shows the 30-day moving average of net flows for Ethereum spot ETFs has been negative for most of the past 90 days, with little evidence of a turn higher.

Persistent outflows don’t guarantee immediate selling in ETH, but they do signal muted institutional demand, making it harder for prices to absorb large exchange deposits or sustain rebounds.