XRP News Today: ETF Inflows and CPI Spark Rebound, $1.5 in Play

XRP snaps its three-day losing streak on strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs and a softer US CPI report.

On Friday, February 13, US headline inflation came in softer than expected, raising expectations of a June Fed rate cut. The prospect of lower borrowing rates sent XRP to a session high, underscoring sensitivity to the Fed rate path.

Meanwhile, the US XRP-spot ETF market saw net inflows for a second consecutive week, signaling robust institutional demand for the token.

While XRP’s February losses support a bearish short-term outlook, the medium-term outlook remains bullish.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook, and the technical levels traders should watch.

US CPI Report Boosts Fed Rate Cut Bets

On February 13, the highly anticipated US CPI report fueled demand for risk assets. The annual inflation rate eased from 2.7% in December to 2.4% in January. Economists expected headline inflation to come in at 2.5%. Meanwhile, core inflation fell from 2.6% in December to 2.5% in January, aligned with consensus.

While holding above the Fed’s 2% target, cooling inflation lifted expectations of a June Fed rate cut. Typically, lower borrowing costs boost liquidity, fueling speculative and leveraged positioning in XRP.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a June Fed rate cut rose from 62.3% on February 12 to 68.7% on February 13, indicating a shift in market sentiment toward a more dovish Fed policy outlook. XRP rallied from $1.3741 to a session high of $1.4270 in response. Increased expectations of lower interest rates support the bullish medium-term (4-8 weeks) and longer-term (8-12 weeks) outlook for XRP.

XRP-Spot ETF Market Gets Inflow Boost

Friday’s US inflation figures revived demand for US XRP-spot ETFs, another crucial price catalyst. The US XRP-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $4.5 million on February 13, partially reversing the previous day’s outflows of $6.42 million. Friday’s inflows contributed to $7.65 million of net inflows in the reporting week ending February 13, tilting the supply-demand balance in XRP’s favor.

XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets

Despite snapping a three-day losing streak, XRP has plunged 14% in February. February’s pullback affirms a negative short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $1.0.

However, robust institutional demand for XRP-spot ETFs, optimism over the US Senate passing the Market Structure Bill, and increased XRP utility reinforce the bullish medium- to long-term price projections:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0.

Key Downside Risks to the Bullish Medium-Term Outlook

Several events could derail the constructive medium-term bias. These include:

• A hawkish Bank of Japan, with a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%). Multiple BoJ rate hikes could narrow US-Japan rate differentials in favor of the yen. Narrowing rate differentials may trigger a yen carry trade unwind, leading to a liquidity crunch, as seen in mid-2024. A yen carry trade unwind would reinforce the bearish structure. For context, the BoJ previously indicated a wider neutral rate range of 1% to 2.5%.
• Falling bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
• Delays and/or partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
• Extended periods of XRP-spot ETF net outflows.

These scenarios would weigh on XRP, pushing the token toward $1.0, reaffirming the bearish short-term outlook.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

XRP rallied 3.62% on February 13, reversing the previous day’s 0.52%, closing at $1.4071. The token tracked the broader crypto market cap, which advanced by 3.52%.

Despite reclaiming $1.4, XRP remained well below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling bearish momentum. Notably, the 50-day EMA steepened its downward trajectory, also a bearish indicator. However, several positive fundamentals continue to counter bearish technicals, supporting the bullish medium-term outlook. Nevertheless, short-term technicals remain bearish despite improving fundamentals.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $1.0 and then $0.7773.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $1.7502.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.1561.
• Resistance levels: $1.50, $2.0, $2.5, and $3.0.

On the daily chart, a breakout above $1.50 would bring the 50-day EMA into play. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would open the door to testing the 200-day EMA.

A sustained break above the EMAs would reaffirm a bullish trend reversal and the medium- to longer-term price targets.

Fundamental Events Driving Near-Term Price Action

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flows.
• US economic data and the Fed’s rate path. The FOMC meeting minutes and FOMC member speeches will be in focus next week.
• Crypto-related legislative developments.
• The Bank of Japan’s neutral rate and policy outlook.
• Increased geopolitical tensions.

Bearish Structure Intact: $1.0 Remains Key Support

XRP’s February pullback affirmed the existing bearish trend. A drop below the lower trendline would expose the February 6 low of $1.1227. If breached, $1.0 would be the next key support level. A sustained fall through $1.0 would reaffirm the bearish short-term outlook and further validate the bearish structure.

However, a breakout above $1.5 would enable the bulls to target $2.0 and the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would invalidate the bearish structure and signal a bullish trend reversal, reinforcing the constructive medium-term bias.

• Short-term (1-4 weeks): $1.0.
• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): target of $3.0.

XRP Outlook: Crypto Legislation, the Fed, and ETF Flows Remain Key Drivers

Looking ahead, regulatory developments on Capitol Hill remain critical to XRP’s price trajectory. An end to the TradFi-DeFi stalemate on stablecoin yields would boost hopes that the Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, driving XRP demand.

Meanwhile, the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes, central bank rhetoric, and XRP-spot ETF flows will also dictate buying interest in XRP.

A more dovish Fed rate path and a dovish BoJ neutral rate (potentially 1%-1.25%) would lift sentiment. Sustained demand for US XRP-spot ETFs and the progress of the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the positive medium-term outlook.

In summary, these events support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $2.5. The US Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would reinforce the longer-term (8-12 weeks) price target of $3.0.

Beyond 12 weeks, these factors are likely to drive XRP to its all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). A breakout above $3.66 would reaffirm a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.