Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Price Forecast: Breakout Signals New Bull Trend

Earnings Beat Lifts Market Sentiment

Shares of Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) remain poised to move higher following Friday’s pre-market Q4 2025 earnings announcement and market response. Results beat consensus estimates for EPS and revenue was modestly ahead of estimates, although down from the prior year. The market response was positive, with MRNA shares up on the day, rising slightly on the day by $1.22 or 3.0%.

Bullish Reversal Signals Trend Change

Technically, MRNA triggered a bullish reversal of its long-term downtrend in mid-January. The breakout occurred above a lower swing high and the top of a bottom consolidation pattern at $35.59. It is still very early in the potential uptrend, as the reversal triggered relatively recently. The stock is in an interesting position as of this week, as it may have completed its first pullback to test prior resistance as support. Once this confirms with a rally above this week’s high, the bull trend may be ready to proceed.

First Pullback Tests New Support

MRNA fell to a low of $36.66 this week, before bouncing. Although the $35.59 level was not reached precisely, given the bullish reaction following that low, it appears close enough to qualify as a successful test. Also, the area near the rising 10-week moving average was confirmed as support, as it sits at $37.74 currently. Therefore, this week may complete the first pullback following a long-term upside breakout. Once that occurs, the bull trend may be ready to proceed. Note that sellers had been in control for approximately 19 months from the $170.47 peak in May 2024, until the January breakout.

Key Resistance at January High

Following the January breakout, MRNA reached a top at $55.20. That top was at the confluence of several indicators, including a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the current downswing, a lower monthly high, and the 100-week moving average. Also, the middle line of a falling trend channel was in the same price zone, marking an area of possible resistance. The two weeks near the high closed at or below the middle line, further reinforcing potential resistance. Together, these indicators and the subsequent bearish reaction, suggest that $55.20 is a key pivot area and if it broken to the upside, bullish momentum should accelerate to confirm the significance of the continuation breakout.

Long-Term Upside Targets and Levels

An initial upside long-term target for MRNA appears to be the 200-week moving average, which is at $92.99 currently and falling. It is also on its way to converging with a long-term downtrend line of the falling channel. Since a bullish reversal has triggered from the bottom boundary area of the channel, there is potential for MRNA to eventually reach the top side of the pattern. This analysis supports the 200-week average being a key initial upside target. Nonetheless, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $76.72 may be reached first.