XRP News Today: $1.5 Break Sparks Reversal Hopes

XRP reclaims $1.5 for the first time in eight sessions, looking to snap a five-week losing streak. Crypto-related legislative developments, robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs, and rising Fed rate cut bets lifted sentiment.

This week’s US CPI report showed inflation cooling, boosting demand for risk assets. Hopes that the Market Structure Bill will make progress on Capitol Hill contributed to the gains.

Meanwhile, the US XRP-spot ETF market saw net inflows for a second consecutive week, signaling robust institutional demand for the token.

This week’s rebound supports the medium-term outlook.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook, and the technical levels traders should watch.

Optimism over Crypto-Legislative Developments Boosts XRP Demand

A potential turning point in the TradFi-DeFi stalemate on stablecoin yields suggests a bullish trend reversal.

Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong remarked on the latest crypto-related regulatory developments on Capitol Hill, stating:

“I’m confident we can achieve a market structure win-win that advances the President’s crypto agenda while addressing the concerns of the banks. Our focus throughout will be to advocate for what’s best for crypto users. We’re all in – we were the first ones fighting for market structure before it was popular, and we’re staying at the table. GENIUS passed 6 months ago and is now being re-litigated. That deeply impacts our customers.”

Commenting on the two White House sessions on stablecoin yields, Armstrong added:

“Coinbase attended both recent White House meetings, and the crypto industry is aligned. We’re making good progress towards reaching a win-win-win between the White House, banks, and crypto, and we’ll keep advocating for what’s best for crypto users, especially core consumer benefits like rewards.”

For context, Coinbase withdrew its support for the US Senate Banking Committee’s draft text on the Market Structure Bill in mid-January. In response, the Banking Committee postponed its markup vote on the draft text, triggering an extended pullback. Brian Armstrong warned that the draft amendments would kill rewards on stablecoins, allowing banks to ban their competition.

This week, Coinbase released its quarterly earnings results. Notably, the crypto exchange saw stablecoin revenue rise to a record $364.1 million in Q4, up 61% year-on-year. Meanwhile, full-year stablecoin revenue increased 48% to $1,348.8 million, accounting for 18.8% of total revenue. These results underpin Coinbase’s push for legislation to allow stablecoin rewards. Crucially, retail investors benefit from stablecoin yields given the higher rewards compared to interest on bank deposits.

Speculation Grows Over an iShares XRP Trust Launch

Legislative developments on Capitol Hill remain key to increased XRP utility and the bullish medium- to longer-term price outlook. However, XRP could get a further boost if BlackRock launches an iShares XRP Trust. Such a move would signal increased institutional interest and validate XRP’s positive utility outlook.

This week, Rep. Hugh Blackwell, a Republican Member of the North Carolina House of Representatives, stated:

“Speculation continues: BlackRock is reportedly pressuring the SEC to approve spot XRP ETFs this Monday. I still have my doubts, but if this turns out to be true, we could be looking at the beginning of a major bullish wave.”

For context, BlackRock’s iShares ETFs dominate the crypto market, underscoring the significance of the launch of an iShares XRP Trust.

Looking at the US BTC-spot ETF market as a proxy, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has seen total net inflows of $61.62 billion since launching in January 2024. In contrast, the second-largest BTC-spot ETF by net inflows, Fidelity Origin (FBTC), has reported just $10.99 billion in total net inflows. Similar demand for an iShares XRP Trust would be a boon for XRP.

XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets

Despite reclaiming $1.5, February’s losses support a cautiously bearish short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $1.0.

Meanwhile, strong buying interest in XRP-spot ETFs, hopes that the US Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, and increased XRP utility reaffirm the bullish medium- to long-term price projections:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0.

Key Downside Risks to the Bullish Medium-Term Outlook

Several events could derail the constructive medium-term bias. These include:

• A hawkish Bank of Japan, with a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%). Multiple BoJ rate hikes could narrow US-Japan rate differentials in favor of the yen. Narrowing rate differentials may trigger a yen carry trade unwind, leading to a liquidity crunch, as seen in mid-2024. A yen carry trade unwind would affirm the bearish structure. For context, the BoJ previously declared a wider neutral rate range of 1%-2.5%, but said it would announce a narrower band.
• Cooling bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
• Delays and/or partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
• Extended periods of XRP-spot ETF net outflows.

These factors would weigh on XRP, push the token toward $1.0, and reinforce the bearish short-term outlook.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

XRP rallied 7.23% on February 13, following the previous day’s 3.26% gain, closing at $1.5089. The token tracked the broader crypto market cap, which advanced by 3.52%.

Despite reclaiming $1.5, XRP remained well below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating bearish momentum. Furthermore, the 50-day EMA steepened its downward trajectory, another bearish indicator. However, several favorable fundamentals continue to offset bearish technicals, supporting the bullish medium-term outlook. Nevertheless, short-term technicals remain bearish despite improving fundamentals.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $1.5, $1.0, and then $0.7773.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $1.7448.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.1507.
• Resistance levels: $2.0, $2.5, and $3.0.

On the daily chart, a sustained break above $1.50 would enable the bulls to target the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would pave the way toward the 200-day EMA.

A sustained breakout above the EMAs would reaffirm a bullish trend reversal and support the medium- to longer-term price targets.

Fundamental Events Driving Near-Term Price Action

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flow trends.
• US economic indicators and the Fed’s policy stance. Looking ahead, the FOMC meeting minutes and FOMC member speeches will be key price catalysts.
• Crypto-related regulatory developments.
• The Bank of Japan’s neutral rate and rate path.
• Increased geopolitical risks.

Bearish Structure Intact: $1.0 Remains Critical Support

XRP’s February sell-off affirmed the existing bearish trend. A break below the lower trendline would bring the February 6 low of $1.1227 into play. If breached, $1.0 would be the next key support level. A sustained fall through $1.0 would reinforce the bearish short-term outlook and further validate the bearish structure.

However, holding above $1.5 would pave the way toward $2.0 and the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would invalidate the bearish structure and indicate a bullish trend reversal, reaffirming the constructive medium-term bias.

• Short-term (1-4 weeks): $1.0.
• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): target of $3.0.

XRP Outlook: Crypto Legislation, the Fed, and ETF Flows Remain Key Drivers

Looking ahead, legislative developments on Capitol Hill remain key to XRP’s price outlook. Progress toward an agreement between TradFi and DeFi on stablecoin yields would fuel optimism that the Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, boosting XRP demand.

Meanwhile, central bank chatter and XRP-spot ETF flows will also influence XRP’s price trends.

A more dovish Fed policy outlook and a lower BoJ neutral rate (potentially 1%-1.25%) would lift sentiment. Robust demand for US XRP-spot ETFs and favorable legislative developments would reinforce the positive medium-term outlook.

In summary, these factors support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $2.5. The US Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the longer-term (8-12 weeks) price target of $3.0.

Beyond 12 weeks, these events are likely to send XRP to its all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). A breakout above $3.66 would reinforce a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.