The Week Ahead: Markets Brace for FOMC Minutes, Core PCE Data and Walmart Earnings

Market Overview

U.S. equity indexes pulled back last week as volatility picked up across large-cap tech. The benchmark S&P 500 closed at 6,836.17 (-1.39%), the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished at 22,546.67 (-2.10%), and the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 49,500.94 (-1.23%). Selling pressure was concentrated in mega-cap growth, with broader indices showing relative resilience.

The tone softened as investors rotated out of AI-linked leadership and into more defensive areas. Treasury demand firmed alongside the equity pullback, signaling a more cautious risk posture into mid-February.

Macro data were mixed but constructive. Non-Farm Payrolls surprised to the upside, unemployment edged down to 4.3%, and CPI moderated to 0.2% m/m headline. Core pressures remain elevated, but the broader inflation trend continues to ease gradually.

This week’s focus centers on the FOMC minutes and Friday’s Core PCE report. With the Fed holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in January, traders will look for clarity on policy timing and how officials interpret recent labor and inflation data.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday (Feb 16)
• Markets closed – Presidents Day

Tuesday (Feb 17)
Before the Open:
• DTE Energy (DTE), est. $1.52
• Medtronic (MDT), est. $1.34
• Builders FirstSource (BLDR), est. $1.31

Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Empire State Manufacturing Index, forecast 8.5 (prior 7.7)
• 15:00 GMT – NAHB Housing Market Index, forecast 38 (prior 37)

After the Close:
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW), est. $0.94
• Devon Energy (DVN), est. $0.80
• Toll Brothers (TOL), est. $2.11

Wednesday (Feb 18)
Before the Open:
• Analog Devices (ADI), est. $2.31
• Garmin (GRMN), est. $2.40
• Moody’s (MCO), est. $3.43

Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.4%)
• 13:30 GMT – Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast -1.8% (prior 5.3%)
• 14:15 GMT – Industrial Production m/m, forecast 0.4% (prior 0.4%)
• 19:00 GMT – FOMC Meeting Minutes

After the Close:
• Booking Holdings (BKNG), est. $48.67
• DoorDash (DASH), est. $0.59
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY), est. $0.19

Thursday (Feb 19)
Before the Open:
• Walmart (WMT), est. $0.72
• Deere (DE), est. $2.10
• Etsy (ETSY), est. $0.85

Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 229K (prior 227K)
• 13:30 GMT – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, forecast 7.8 (prior 12.6)

After the Close:
• Akamai (AKAM), est. $1.76
• Newmont (NEM), est. $2.05
• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), est. $1.50

Friday (Feb 20)
Before the Open:
• Lamar Advertising (LAMR), est. $2.19

Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Advance GDP q/q, forecast 2.8% (prior 4.4%)
• 13:30 GMT – Core PCE Price Index m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
• 14:45 GMT – Flash Manufacturing PMI, forecast 52.1 (prior 52.4)
• 15:00 GMT – New Home Sales, forecast 735K (prior 736K)

After the Close:
• No reports scheduled

Central Bank Activity

Tuesday: Bowman – 13:25 GMT; Barr – 17:45 GMT; Daly – 19:30 GMT.
Wednesday: Bowman – 18:00 GMT; FOMC Minutes – 19:00 GMT.
Thursday: Bostic – 13:20 GMT; Kashkari – 14:00 GMT; Goolsbee – 15:30 GMT.
Friday: Bostic – 14:45 GMT; Logan – 18:15 GMT.

Markets will parse the Fed minutes commentary for confirmation that policy remains on hold into spring. Any deviation in tone regarding inflation persistence or labor strength could move rate expectations.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 49,500.94 (-1.23%), support at 45,728.93, 45,452.03 then 44,971.72 (52-week SMA), resistance at 50,512.79.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 22,546.67 (-2.10%), support at 21,898.29 then 20,935.30 (52-week SMA), resistance at 23,988.27.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,836.17 (-1.39%), support at 6,521.92, 6,360.58 then 6,325.78 (52-week SMA), resistance at 7,002.28.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend.

Outlook

The FOMC minutes and Core PCE headline the week. Traders will assess whether easing inflation and firmer labor data justify continued patience from the Fed. Advance GDP and jobless claims add additional context on growth momentum.

Earnings from Walmart, Deere, Booking, and Palo Alto Networks will provide insight into consumer demand, industrial activity, travel spending, and enterprise tech budgets.

If inflation data cooperate and Fed messaging remains steady, equities could stabilize after last week’s pullback. A hotter Core PCE reading, however, would likely pressure rate-sensitive sectors and extend the recent consolidation in tech leadership.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.