Nasdaq 100 and S&P500: CPI Surprise and Jobless Spike Shake US Stock Forecast

Stock Futures Steady as CPI Surprises on Monthly Basis; Jobless Claims Spike

U.S. equity futures were steady-to-better early Thursday as traders digested a mixed batch of inflation and labor market data. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each inched up 0.1%, while Dow futures followed suit, offering little follow-through after the S&P 500 notched another all-time high on Wednesday.

Stronger-than-expected consumer inflation for August on a month-over-month basis offset investor optimism following Wednesday’s rally, which was driven by Oracle’s historic surge. Meanwhile, a sharp rise in jobless claims introduced fresh labor market concerns, keeping futures in check.

How Did CPI and Jobless Claims Stir Market Caution?

August’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month over month, above the 0.3% estimate from Dow Jones economists. The annual increase remained at 2.9%, in line with expectations. While that year-over-year figure reassured markets about the broader inflation trend, the monthly beat hinted at persistent consumer price pressures that may factor into upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions.

Adding to the cautious tone, initial jobless claims spiked by 27,000 to 263,000 for the week ending September 6 — the highest since October 2021. Economists had expected a modest decline to 235,000. This surprise uptick casts doubt on labor market resilience and could further complicate the Fed’s policy outlook.

Oracle Surge Fuels AI Stocks, Lifts Broader Tech Sentiment

Oracle shares exploded 36% on Wednesday, marking their best single-day performance since 1992. The company’s bullish cloud growth outlook added $244 billion in market cap and sparked a broad rally in AI-linked names. Investors took Oracle’s cloud momentum as a proxy for strength across the artificial intelligence sector.

Chipmakers including Broadcom, AMD, and Micron followed suit, posting notable gains as traders rotated back into tech leadership. The Nasdaq barely closed in positive territory, but these tech names stood out as clear beneficiaries.

Is Micron the Next Big AI Play? Citi Thinks So

Citi boosted its price target on Micron from $150 to $175 per share, maintaining a “buy” rating ahead of the company’s fiscal Q4 earnings due September 23. Analyst Christopher Danely expects earnings of $2.62 per share on revenue of $11.2 billion, and anticipates Q1 guidance of $13 billion — well above the $11.71 billion consensus.

Citi pointed to strong DRAM and NAND demand from data centers, which make up 55% of Micron’s revenue, alongside constrained production as key drivers for the bullish forecast.

Market Outlook: What’s Next for Traders?

The hotter-than-expected monthly CPI and spike in jobless claims complicate the near-term picture for rate expectations. While the annual inflation trend remains steady, persistent monthly pressures and labor market softening could prompt cautious Fed rhetoric ahead of the next FOMC meeting.

Traders should monitor upcoming retail sales and consumer sentiment data for additional insight into inflation persistence and spending trends. All eyes will be on Fed commentary as markets reassess the timing and extent of future rate cuts.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.