Nasdaq 100 and S&P500: US Stocks Steady as Nvidia Forecast Poised to Shake Markets After Close

Wall Street Holds Gains Ahead of Nvidia Earnings as Traders Watch Tech Valuations

Stocks were treading water in early afternoon trading Wednesday, with the major indexes holding modest gains as Wall Street braced for Nvidia’s after-hours earnings report.

As of 16:45 GMT, the Dow was up 75 points (+0.17%) to 45,493, the S&P 500 rose 5.75 points (+0.09%) to 6,471, and the Nasdaq added just 2.4 points (+0.01%) to 21,546. Nvidia, which has been the poster child of the AI trade, continues to be the market’s focal point.

Can Nvidia Keep the AI Rally Intact—or Is Tech Getting Too Pricey?

The chip giant is only slightly higher today, but the real action is expected post-close. Traders are pricing in a massive $260 billion potential swing in its market value, depending on how the earnings shake out. The broader tech sector is only up 0.3%, with big names like Microsoft, Meta, AMD, and Broadcom stuck in neutral.

Valuation worries are creeping back in, especially with the S&P 500 and tech sector both trading well above their long-term averages. Comments last week from OpenAI’s Sam Altman about a possible bubble—and fresh research from MIT questioning AI’s impact on corporate earnings—are still hanging over the space.

What Risks Could Derail Nvidia’s Momentum?

Aside from earnings and guidance, traders are closely watching China-related commentary. Beijing’s push to replace foreign chips with domestic alternatives could chip away at Nvidia’s revenue in the region. And while the company’s recent deal with the U.S. government may bolster its domestic business, it’s unclear how much of that is already priced in.

What Else Is Moving the Broader Market?

Outside of tech, energy stocks are in the green, leading all 11 S&P 500 sectors with a 0.7% gain. Small caps are quietly making progress, with the Russell 2000 up 0.5% on the day and now more than 4% higher since Powell’s dovish tone last week.

MongoDB is today’s standout, jumping over 34% after hiking its profit outlook. On the flip side, J.M. Smucker sank 5% after missing earnings.

Could Politics Throw a Curveball at the Fed?

Markets also appear to be digesting political headlines. Reports that former President Trump tried to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook are adding some uncertainty. The move is likely to get tied up legally, but it’s raising questions about the future makeup of the Fed—especially if another dovish-leaning nominee were to be installed.

Meanwhile, rate cut expectations remain firmly intact. Traders still see a strong chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September, with Fed officials sticking to their “data-dependent” mantra.

Bottom Line: Nvidia Holds the Market’s Attention—But Is It Enough to Keep Bulls in Control?

We’re basically in a holding pattern until Nvidia reports. The indexes are green, but barely. If earnings impress and the guidance is strong, that could be enough to push the S&P and Nasdaq to fresh highs. But if expectations are too high—and recent China headwinds show up in the outlook—we could be looking at a sharp pullback. The market’s still leaning bullish, but the air is getting thin at these levels.

Bottom line: Nvidia’s earnings will set the tone for the next leg, one way or another.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.