Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Bitcoin Drop Signals Tech Stock Correction

Bitcoin and Nasdaq Hit Record Highs One Day Apart: What Traders Should Watch

Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 both hit new records last week, with the Nasdaq peaking at 24068.50 and Bitcoin reaching $124,533.00 just one day later. The synchronized highs reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a leveraged extension of the tech trade. But with Bitcoin now breaking below its 50-day average while the Nasdaq consolidates near highs, traders should take note of the divergence.

Correlation Confirmed, But Bitcoin Slips Below Support

Since June, the Nasdaq has climbed from 21566.75 to its recent record at 24068.50, a gain of nearly 12%. Bitcoin surged even more, rising from $98,225.01 in late June to $124,533.00 in mid-August, a 26% rally. This mirrors the typical pattern: Bitcoin amplifies Nasdaq moves by 2–3 times.

The difference now is direction. Bitcoin has closed at $114,732.68, dropping under its 50-day SMA at $115,713.70, while the Nasdaq remains steady above its 50-day SMA at 22959.90. The last time Bitcoin dipped below its 50-day average in early August, it found support at $111,903.68 before bouncing. That level is once again in play.

Upside Scenario: Reclaiming Momentum

If the Nasdaq continues higher toward 25000, Bitcoin could rebound and retest the $120,000–$124,000 zone. In a bullish continuation, Bitcoin typically outpaces the Nasdaq’s percentage move, suggesting potential gains of 10–15% from current levels. For this scenario to hold, Bitcoin must quickly reclaim the 50-day moving average and maintain its familiar one-day lag behind Nasdaq’s moves.

Downside Scenario: Bitcoin as the Leading Signal

The greater risk is that Bitcoin’s weakness signals trouble ahead for equities. A 5% Nasdaq pullback to around 22500 could push Bitcoin back toward the $105,119.70–$111,903.68 range. A decisive break below those supports would open the door to a deeper decline, with the 200-day SMA at $100,342.52 as the next target.

Market Outlook: Cautious Bias

The synchronized record highs confirm Bitcoin’s identity as a high-beta tech instrument, but the latest breakdown below support tilts the short-term bias toward caution.

Bullish case: Bitcoin reclaims $116,000+ while Nasdaq holds above 23500.

Bearish case: Bitcoin sustains closes below $115,000 while Nasdaq trades flat, confirming crypto is leading the correction.

For traders, Bitcoin remains both an amplifier and an early warning system. Its latest weakness suggests equity investors should stay alert: when Bitcoin breaks first, tech stocks often follow.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.