Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver Technical Analysis Amid Strong Jobs Data and Fed Rate Uncertainty

Gold (XAU) price dropped after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for September reduced hopes for an imminent rate cut. The nonfarm payrolls increased by over 119,000. This was more than double the forecast, signaling continued labor market strength. Therefore, traders adjusted their expectations, pushing the probability of a December rate cut to 35.6%.

Moreover, the U.S. dollar strengthened following the release of the NFP data. With the Fed now less likely to cut rates soon, the appeal of gold has weakened. This shift in sentiment added pressure to spot gold, which dropped within the consolidation zones above $4,000.

Despite the short-term dip, the longer-term outlook remains constructive. The possibility of rate cuts in 2026, geopolitical risks, and strong institutional demand continue to support the bullish trend. Gold has already climbed 55% this year, and while volatility may persist, the macro backdrop still favors accumulation during pullbacks.

Gold Technical Analysis

XAUUSD Daily Chart – Symmetrical Triangle

The daily chart for spot gold shows the price consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern. Notably, the price remains above the 50-day SMA, and both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs are rising, indicating that the gold market remains in a strong uptrend. However, the current consolidation near year-end reflects typical seasonal behavior, which often brings increased price uncertainty.

A break above the upper boundary of the triangle is needed to confirm bullish continuation. Specifically, a breakout above the $4,250 zone would support further upside momentum. Moreover, a decisive move above $4,380 would likely trigger a strong rally.

XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation

The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows strong consolidation above the $4,030 region. The price is holding above the black dotted trendline, which maintains the bullish trend. However, the consolidation following the drop from the $4,380 high increases uncertainty and the potential for wide swings in either direction.

A break above $4,250 would confirm continued bullish momentum. On the other hand, a break below the $3,900 level could lead to further downside before the next potential move higher.

Silver Technical Analysis

XAGUSD Daily Chart – Correction

The daily chart for spot silver (XAG) shows that the price is pulling back from the $54.50 level after hitting a record level. However, support near $49.30, along with the rising 50-day SMA, indicates strong underlying momentum. A break below the $45 region would confirm a bearish shift and open the door for further downside toward the $40 area. On the other hand, a break above $54.50 would signal the start of the following strong move upward in the silver market.

XAGUSD 4-Hour Chart – Bullish Consolidation

The 4-hour chart for spot silver shows strong consolidation above the $49.30 area. A break below this level could push silver lower toward the $45.80 zone. The recent rejection near $54.40 keeps the market trading in a wide range between support and resistance. A breakout from either side of this range will likely define the next directional move in the silver market.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Consolidation

The daily chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows a rebound from long-term support around the 96.50 level. A break above 100.50 would likely push the index higher toward the 102 area, while a break below 96.50 would confirm the continuation of the bearish trend.

The index is currently consolidating around the 200-day SMA, adding to short-term uncertainty. However, the RSI remains above the mid-level, suggesting the short-term trend remains positive for now.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation

The 4-hour chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows strong consolidation between the 96.50 and 100.50 levels. A breakout from either side will determine the next directional move. A break below 96.50 would signal further downside, while a break above 100.50 could push the index toward the 102 level.