Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Tech Stocks Slide as AI Investment Fears Hit US Indices

Tech Futures Slide as AI Investment Concerns Overshadow Earnings Beats

U.S. stock index futures are lower shortly before the cash market opening on Friday, with the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq-100 Index down for a second straight session. All three majors are positioned to finish lower for the week.

At 11:03 GMT, E-mini Dow futures are trading 48837.00, down 333.00 or -0.68%. E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 6943.75, down 49.00 or -0.70%. E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are trading 25786.00, down 213.25 or -0.82%.

Mixed Earnings Results Fail to Lift Sentiment

The decline is somewhat surprising given Apple and Sandisk posted strong after-hours gains, but investors remain focused on Thursday’s post-earnings selloff from Microsoft. Semiconductor equipment maker KLA shed 8% overnight, adding to bearish pressure.

Apple shares are trading steady-to-better after beating fiscal first-quarter earnings and revenue expectations, helped by a significant jump in iPhone sales. Data storage stock Sandisk is trading 17% higher on strong guidance. However, KLA’s non-GAAP gross margin in the fiscal third quarter came in below expectations, triggering a nearly 10% loss. These overnight performances underscore what has become clear since earnings season started—investors aren’t interested in past performance. They want visibility into when massive AI investments will deliver returns.

Microsoft Selloff Exposes AI Monetization Fears

Microsoft dragged all three major indexes lower in the previous session, falling more than 10% at one point before notching its worst one-day performance since March 2020. According to CNBC, sellers hammered the stock after it reported a slight slowdown in Azure cloud division growth and provided soft guidance on operating margin for the fiscal third quarter.

Software companies emerged as the biggest losers in the tech sector as investors pulled support on growing fears that artificial intelligence could threaten software business models, CNBC reported. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) closed 5.4% lower, marking its biggest one-day decline since April 2025. This move pushed the ETF into bear market territory with a 22% decline from its recent high.

Technical Breakdown Threatens Further Losses

March E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are sharply lower for a second session early Friday. After briefly regaining a key uptrend line earlier in the week and positioning for a run at the record high at 26670.00, the index peaked at 26349.00 before dropping Thursday and Friday.

The tech-weighted index is now positioned to challenge the 50-day moving average at 25615.39. Crossing below this indicator will signal the presence of sellers. More bearish would be a breakdown under a downtrend line at 25464.75 and a major 50% level at 25441.75. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the January 21 bottom at 25025.

E-mini Nasdaq-100 Forecast: Bearish Unless 50-Day MA Holds

The upside remains limited until the E-mini Nasdaq-100 index sustains a rally above the uptrend line at 26152.25. Today’s focus centers on whether the 50-day moving average at 25615.39 will be defended by buyers. If they pull their bids, expect accelerated downside pressure with potential targets near 25025. The bearish short-term outlook reflects mounting concerns over AI investment returns and software sector vulnerability.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.