Nasdaq 100: Tech Stocks Weigh on US Stocks as Traders Eye Fib Resistance and Fed Forecast

Nasdaq-100 Futures Slip as Traders Brace for Powell and Key Inflation Data

E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures traded lower on Monday, pulling back from an early high of 25546.00 as traders assessed fresh economic data and awaited a pivotal speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The contract briefly tested a short-term 61.8% retracement at 25446.50 but failed to hold above it, keeping pressure on the broader tech complex. Futures were last down 0.36% at 25390.75.

The market is currently sitting inside a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement of the 26399.00 to 23904.50 range. Holding above the 50-day moving average at 25179.22 and the 50% retracement at 25151.75 remains critical. A failure there could accelerate selling toward 24708.00, while strength above 25446.50 would signal buyers returning and open the door for a retest of 25830.00.

How Are Economic Signals Steering Sentiment?

U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for a ninth straight month in November as factory new orders weakened and input costs rose, partly reflecting tariff pressures. The data offered little encouragement for traders hoping for an economic rebound, reinforcing caution ahead of Powell’s remarks later in the session. Market participants continue to monitor whether the Fed chair signals openness to further easing before year-end.

Will the Fed Deliver Another Rate Cut?

Expectations for a December rate cut have surged, with traders pricing in an 87.6% probability of a 25-basis-point move, nearly double last month’s odds. Speculation also intensified after reports that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is a leading contender to potentially succeed Powell. Traders will scrutinize Powell’s speech for clues on the policy path, especially with the delayed PCE inflation report due Friday.

Which Sectors and Stocks Are Driving Today’s Market Tone?

Higher sovereign bond yields added pressure, with the 10-year benchmark up roughly six basis points, weighing on major equity indexes. Retail names saw scattered strength as Cyber Monday spending was projected to hit $14.2 billion after a record Black Friday haul.

Walmart and Target inched higher, while Bath and Body Works surged 5%. Crypto-exposed stocks retreated sharply as bitcoin fell below $90,000. Tesla slipped following weaker European registrations, while Synopsys jumped 4.9% after Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment in the firm.

Short-Term Market Outlook

For traders, the near-term outlook leans cautious. Nasdaq-100 futures must hold the 50-day moving average and decisively break above 25446.50 to shift sentiment toward a bullish bias. Until that occurs, headline risk from Fed communications and inflation data is likely to maintain a defensive tone across equities.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.