Nasdaq Index: ASML Surge, Powell Remarks and Megacap Earnings Drive Today’s Forecast

A Packed Day: Fed Meeting, Tech Earnings, and Chip Optimism

Today might be the busiest market day of the first quarter if you’re paying close attention to the Fed and earnings calendars. Overnight, ASML reported blockbuster chip equipment orders and this news is already moving U.S. stock index futures.

This afternoon at 19:00 GMT, the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision. And after the stock market close at 21:00 GMT, three of the biggest names in tech—Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft—report earnings. For anyone trading the major indexes, it’s a lot happening at once, which likely means heightened volatility, so be prepared.

ASML’s Record Orders Light Up Semiconductor Sentiment

ASML, the Dutch company that makes the machines chipmakers need to produce advanced semiconductors, reported quarterly bookings of €13.2 billion—more than double what analysts expected. The company also announced a €12 billion stock buyback and said revenue from its most advanced equipment should rise significantly in 2026.

The guidance is good news for the chip sector and the AI infrastructure story more broadly. We’ve mentioned several times since earnings season began that the investors weren’t looking at the past, but the future and ASML delivered just what they were looking for. This is even better news for customer stocks because if ASML is seeing strong orders, it suggests companies like Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC are still investing heavily in capacity. Investors may be anticipating this to show up in their earnings reports.

The Nasdaq Composite Index, which leans heavily on semiconductors, got an early boost from the ASML report and is expected to open higher when the cash market resumes trading at 14:30 GMT.

One caveat: ASML noted that China will account for about 20% of revenue this year, down from 33% last year, though traders seem focused on the global demand picture rather than regional slowdowns. In my opinion, China is gradually being accepted as a wildcard in the chip business due to ever-changing regulations.

Powell’s Press Conference Takes on Outsized Importance

No one expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates today, but Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference afterward could move markets. Investors want to know whether the Fed sees any rate cuts later this year—possibly in June or December—or if it’s inclined to stay on hold longer than expected by remaining data dependent.

There’s also unusual political tension around this meeting. President Trump has hinted he might name a potential successor to Powell this week, and the Justice Department recently issued a subpoena related to the Fed’s headquarters renovation.

Powell has called the investigation politically motivated, but he’s likely to avoid direct political commentary today. Still, the backdrop adds uncertainty to an already closely watched event. After making headlines earlier in the month, the Powell issue has become a whisper, with all experts saying Powell will stay the course until he leaves the position in May.

Three Tech Giants Could Reset the Nasdaq After Hours

After the close, Microsoft is expected to report 15% revenue growth, driven by its Azure cloud business and AI services. Meta’s forecast is even stronger, with a consensus of analysts projecting record quarterly revenue above $58 billion. Both companies carry heavy weight in the Nasdaq, so even small surprises—positive or negative—could swing futures prices after the cash market close.

Tesla faces a tougher setup. Analysts expect earnings to drop sharply, deliveries fell last quarter, and competition from Chinese automakers like BYD has intensified. Investors will be looking for signs that the shift to a subscription model for Full Self-Driving is gaining traction. Nonetheless, Tesla may be the stock with the greatest volatility after the company reports.

Between the Fed, chip optimism, and heavyweight earnings, today has the potential to reset expectations heading into February. It seems that investors will really be emphasizing the future from the Fed and from the companies reporting. Investors will be looking for “when” the Fed will make its first cut and “when” AI is going to pay off.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.