With Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures in the red, the upcoming jobs report could dictate market sentiment and Federal Reserve actions.
The U.S. stock market is poised for a jittery session as futures indices indicate a lower opening ahead of crucial jobs data. While traders had hopes of a labor market uptick, the recent jobless claims data has done little to ease concerns. Despite coming in close to Street estimates at 207,000, jobless claims failed to signal a labor market boost, causing an anxious atmosphere among investors.
At 13:00 GMT, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 33216.00, down 110.00 or -0.33%. S&P 500 Index futures are at 4283.00, down 14.75 or -0.34% and Nasdaq Composite futures are trading 14876.75, down 47.00 or -0.31%.
While initial jobless claims slightly undershot Dow Jones estimates, the long-term picture is more concerning. A recent Challenger, Gray & Christmas report highlighted a 58% YoY surge in announced job cuts.
Meanwhile, the bond market is echoing these unsettling sentiments. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 16-year high, reaching 4.884% on Wednesday, as traders seek clarity from the forthcoming U.S. jobs report. However, there are signs of a pullback early in today’s session.
In the corporate world, Clorox and energy companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil are seeing declines, the latter in sync with falling crude prices. Conversely, UWM Holdings shares are trending higher following a BTIG upgrade, and Orchard Therapeutics’ stock soared after news broke of its $478 million acquisition by Kyowa Kirin.
The market appears cautious, if not bearish, with tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report anticipated to shed further light on labor market conditions and future Federal Reserve actions.
In the backdrop, ADP’s disheartening employment report and the subsequent Treasury yield movements may indicate continued volatility. If the jobs report reveals a tight labor market, expect more interest rate hikes to come, potentially adding downward pressure on equities.
This financial landscape suggests traders should brace for a rocky session, as multiple indicators point towards increased market volatility and bearish short-term sentiment.
Today’s Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures are trading at 14885.00, below the 50-Day moving average of 15227.24 but above the 200-Day moving average of 13724.35. This positioning suggests a mixed technical picture: while the tech-weighted index is showing strength relative to its longer-term average, it’s currently lacking the momentum to break above its more immediate 50-Day average.
The data at hand leans slightly bearish given the commodity’s inability to sustain levels above the 50-Day moving average.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.