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Natural Gas and Oil Analysis: Diesel Woes Lift Prices; WTI Bullish Above $77.25

By:
Arslan Ali
Updated: Feb 27, 2024, 11:08 UTC

Key Points:

  • Diesel demand surge and supply constraints, amidst geopolitical tensions, elevate oil prices significantly.
  • Strong demand meets limited diesel supply, with Houthi actions stressing oil markets, notably USOIL/UKOIL.
  • Tightened supply impacts, hinting at broader effects on natural gas markets amid fluctuating energy dynamics.
Energy Recap

In this article:

Diesel Demand and Supply Constraints Propel Oil Prices Amid Geopolitical Strains

Oil prices rose on Monday, influenced by heightened demand for European diesel amid Russian sanctions and shipping disruptions, alongside U.S. refinery output constraints due to maintenance.

The market’s focus has shifted back to supply issues, with strong demand exacerbating the impact of limited diesel supplies. This scenario, coupled with geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions from Houthi rebel actions, underscores a critical period for oil markets, affecting USOIL and UKOIL by pushing prices upward.

The situation also indicates a tightened supply, likely affecting natural gas (NG) markets, though the direct impact on NG prices depends on broader energy market dynamics and specific regional supply-demand balances.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas Price Chart
Natural Gas Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) is presently trading at $1.7430, marking a decrease of 1.25% within the past 24 hours. Analyzing a 4-hour chart timeframe, we establish the pivot point at $1.7333, a critical juncture determining the asset’s short-term trajectory.

Resistance levels are identified at $1.8060, $1.8661, and $1.9291, indicating potential barriers to upward movements. Conversely, support levels are found at $1.6802, $1.6117, and $1.5264, suggesting areas where buying interest might intensify. The 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are recorded at $1.7593 and $2.0252, respectively.

This technical layout suggests a neutral to bullish outlook for NG, contingent on its capacity to sustain above the pivot point of $1.7333.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart
WTI Price Chart

In today’s technical analysis of US Oil, the commodity is trading slightly higher at $77.60, marking a 0.06% increase. The analysis, based on a 4-hour chart timeframe, reveals critical price levels to watch. The pivot point stands at $77.23, serving as a baseline for current trading dynamics.

Resistance levels are identified at $78.89, $79.53, and $80.36, indicating potential upward barriers. Conversely, support levels are established at $76.00, $74.95, and $73.82, outlining areas where price declines may halt. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $77.21, closely aligned with today’s price, suggesting a balanced market sentiment.

The overall trend is bullish above the pivot point of $77.20, pointing towards a positive outlook for US Oil, provided it maintains its position above this critical threshold.

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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