Natural Gas and Oil Analysis: Navigating Through OPEC+ Decisions and Market Trends

By:

Arslan Ali

Published: Nov 28, 2023, 13:51 GMT+00:00

US and UK Oil prices are affected by OPEC+ decisions, technical patterns, and global economic conditions.

In this article:

Natural Gas

+0.68%

WTI Oil

-0.45%

Brent Oil

-0.13%

Key Insights

Oil prices rise with potential OPEC+ supply cuts and decreased Kazakh production.
Natural Gas shows a slight uptick, but remains bearish below $3.
US Oil trends bearish below the pivot point of $75.95.
Global economic factors and OPEC+ decisions significantly impact oil and gas prices.

Quick Fundamental Outlook

Oil prices experienced an uptick on Tuesday, driven by multiple factors including potential actions by OPEC+. The Brent benchmark surpassed $80 a barrel, influenced by the likelihood of OPEC+ extending or intensifying supply cuts and a decrease in Kazakh oil production due to a storm. OPEC+, which includes OPEC and allies like Russia, is scheduled for an online meeting on Thursday to discuss 2024 production targets.

Last week, the market saw a downturn when OPEC+ delayed its meeting, aiming to resolve disagreements over production targets for African members. However, a recent move towards a compromise among OPEC+ members, as reported by Reuters, suggests a possible agreement on reducing production further.

Oil prices are also being supported by a weaker dollar, anticipated reductions in U.S. crude inventories, and the aforementioned decline in Kazakh oil output.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Chart

Natural Gas (NG) is showing a slight uptick in its market performance as of November 28, with a 0.88% increase to $2.97. The pivot point for NG is at $2.99, a crucial level for determining the day’s trend. Resistance levels are identified at $3.09, $3.21, and $3.38, while support levels are found at $2.86, $2.73, and $2.61.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 48, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment in the market. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $3.03, just above the current price, suggesting a bearish inclination in the short term.

Chart analysis reveals a downward channel, indicating that NG remains bearish, particularly below the $3 mark. This pattern suggests that the current price movement is within a broader bearish trend, and a break above $3 would be necessary to shift this outlook. In conclusion, the overall trend for Natural Gas is bearish as long as it stays below the $3 threshold.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Chart

US Oil shows a positive movement on November 28, with a price increase of 0.77%, reaching $75.6. The pivot point is set at $75.93, a critical level for determining the day’s trading bias. Resistance levels are identified at $77.97, $79.14, and $80.23, while support lies at $73.98, $72.04, and $70.70.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 49, indicating a neutral market sentiment, hovering just below the midpoint that separates bullish from bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.05 with a signal line at -0.32, suggesting a potential shift towards bullish momentum, albeit not strongly pronounced. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $76.13, slightly above the current price, indicating a tentative bearish trend.

Chart analysis reveals a downward channel with extended resistance at $75.95. This pattern suggests that selling pressure might increase below this level, indicating a bearish outlook if the price remains under the pivot point. In conclusion, the overall trend for US Oil appears bearish below the $75.95 mark.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Oil Chart

UK Oil exhibited a positive trend on November 28, with a 0.82% increase, bringing its price to $80.6. The pivot point is established at $80.71, serving as a key indicator for the day’s trading direction.

Resistance levels are set at $82.99, $84.89, and $87.34, while support is found at lower levels of $78.56, $76.57, and $74.50.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at a neutral 50, indicating an equilibrium between buying and selling pressures.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a slightly bullish signal with a value of 0.04 and a signal line at -0.22, suggesting a potential upward momentum. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $80.86, just above the current price, indicating a very slight bearish inclination.

Chart analysis reveals a symmetrical triangle pattern, with a critical extension at $80.95. This pattern typically indicates a period of consolidation, with a potential breakout on either side.

The proximity of the current price to the pivot point and the 50 EMA suggests a delicate balance in market sentiment. In conclusion, the overall trend for UK Oil is cautiously bearish below the $80.75 mark. In the short term, the market may witness UK Oil testing its immediate resistance levels.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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