Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Can Rising Tensions Offset Bearish 2025 Supply Outlook?

Market Overview

Oil prices stabilised mid-week, though the rising threat of geopolitical tensions is still propping them up, painting a pretty bleak picture for near-term supply expectations. We’re seeing Brent and WTI claw back around 6% since the 16th of December, after plummeting sharply to five-year lows, as traders re-evaluate the potential for supply disruptions and factor in US economic growth that’s proven stronger than expected.

Even with this bounce, though, both benchmarks are still in for a pretty tough 2025 – declines of 16-18% are being forecast, largely on the basis that global supply will outpace demand in the coming year.

Shipping bottlenecks in key exporting regions and damage to energy infrastructure have tightened spot availability, while US crude inventories are actually rising, up 2.39 million barrels last week – and that’s capping any potential gains. And to top it all off, we’re seeing thin holiday liquidity, which is amplifying price swings, so energy markets remain volatile.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Right now, Natural Gas (NG) futures are trading around $4.33 on the 2-hour chart and are stabilizing after a pretty sizeable rebound from the $3.80-$3.85 base. More recent candlesticks show nice, big lower wicks followed by stronger bull bodies, which is a good sign that buyers are defending dips rather than just jumping in when prices spike. The 50 EMA near $4.20 has been reclaimed, while the 100 EMA around $4.40 remains a resistance barrier for now.

Looking at the bigger picture, the market is still being capped below a descending trendline from early December – so we’re talking corrective action here. We’re looking at immediate resistance at $4.40-$4.45, then at $4.58.

On the downside, we’ve got support at $4.20 and then again at $4.01. The RSI is hovering around mid-50s, which is a good sign that momentum is improving without getting overly stretched. Trade idea is to buy dips near $4.20, stop below $4, target $4.55.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil (USOIL) is trading around $58.50 on the 2-hour chart after a steady rebound from the $55.60 low. Recent candles have shown smaller bodies near $58.50-$58.80, suggesting that buyers are hesitating at the resistance zone and not getting a clean breakout.

The 50 EMA has crossed back above the 100 EMA, which is supporting the near-term recovery, and the price is holding above a key support zone around $58.10. We’ve also got a Fibonacci retracement from the $60.85 high to the $55.60 low, which puts us right in the middle of the 38.2-50 zone, a typical area for buyers and sellers to decide what to do.

RSI is cooling down a bit after being overbought in the mid-60s, which is a good sign that momentum is slowing but hasn’t reversed. Trade idea is to buy dips near $58, stop below $57.10, target $59.80.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil (UKOIL) is trading around $61.95 on the 2-hour chart and is just extending a recovery from the $59.40 swing low. The price has moved back above the 50 EMA, and the 100 EMA near $61.50 is actually acting as support. Recent candles have shown higher lows with modest upper wicks, suggesting steady buying rather than aggressive chasing.

We’ve got a key resistance zone visible near $62.20-$62.50, which actually aligns with a prior breakdown level. On the downside, support is looking firm around $61.20, and then there’s stronger demand near $60.35.

RSI has eased down to the mid-50s, suggesting momentum is fairly balanced and not overbought. Trade idea is to buy dips near $61.30, stop below $60.30, target $62.80.