Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Crude Inventories Drop 9.3M Barrels, Sentiment Mixed

Market Overview

WTI crude slipped below $64 per barrel on Thursday, extending declines as traders weighed U.S. stockpile data and monetary policy signals. EIA figures revealed a sharp 9.3 million-barrel draw, fueled by record exports, but a rise in distillates and adjustment factors cast a bearish shadow.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point cut underscored slowing economic momentum, raising concerns for energy demand. Heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over supply stability further pressured sentiment.

With inventories tightening yet global risks mounting, crude and natural gas markets face a volatile path, balancing fragile demand signals against persistent supply-side uncertainty.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading around $3.06, slipping after testing resistance near $3.16. The chart shows price consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle, with rising trendline support at $3.00 and overhead pressure near $3.16–$3.22. Both the 50-EMA ($3.04) and 200-EMA ($3.07) are flattening, signaling a balance between buyers and sellers.

The RSI at 50.7 suggests neutral momentum, though recent rejection candles near resistance point to hesitation. A breakdown below $3.00 could expose $2.96 and $2.89, while a bullish close above $3.16 may drive a run toward $3.22 and $3.31.

For now, traders should watch the $3.00 floor—holding above favors continued consolidation, while losing it could trigger sharper downside.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading near $63.40, slipping below both the 50-EMA ($63.49) and 200-EMA ($64.00), showing fading momentum after last week’s rally. The chart highlights a rising wedge breakdown, often a sign of near-term weakness.

Price failed to hold above $64.30, with sellers now pressing toward the $62.90–$62.40 support zone. The RSI at 46 suggests momentum has shifted slightly bearish, though not yet oversold. A decisive drop under $62.90 could expose $61.70, while reclaiming $64.30 would neutralize bearish pressure and reopen a path toward $65.30.

For now, traders should watch if oil holds above the $62.90 floor—losing it may accelerate downside before buyers attempt to stabilize.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading at $67.70, holding just above its 50-EMA ($67.45) and 200-EMA ($67.49), keeping price action compressed inside a symmetrical triangle. This pattern often signals a breakout as volatility narrows. Resistance sits at $68.60, while support is clustered near $67.00. The RSI at 50.7 shows neutral momentum, leaving room for a move in either direction.

If bulls reclaim $68.60, a breakout could target $69.50 and potentially $70.30. On the downside, slipping below $67.00 would expose $66.30 and $65.70, levels that previously attracted buyers.

For now, traders should watch the triangle edges closely—price compression suggests a sharp move is nearing, with candlestick confirmation providing the entry cue.