Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by nearly 9% in the past 24 hours and has temporarily found a floor at $80,000. Guess who’s buying? Whales have reportedly bought over $23 billion worth of the token during this period.
BTC Shark’s Net Positions – Source: Glassnode
According to data from Glassnode, whale activity has neared record levels in the past month, with a total of 269,822 BTC tokens bought.
This is the largest spike in whale buying in 13 years. The last time this happened was in 2012 when BTC traded at just $10. Just a year later, the token’s price had spiked to nearly $300 – a 2,900% return in just a year.
Bitcoin was merely an experiment back in 2012, and it took less than $3 million to buy that many tokens at those prices. However, this historic spike shows an even stronger commitment from whales as the stakes are much higher now with that much money on the line.
We all know what has happened with Bitcoin since then. That said, this might not be a short-term signal to buy and cash out a month later. Instead, it might mark a pivotal moment in terms of adoption.
Back in 2012, the world was starting to wake up to the benefits of blockchain technology, and tech-savvy investors and pioneers were starting to realize its true potential.
Fast-forward 13 years, Wall Street is fully embracing cryptocurrencies, financial titans like BlackRock have started to launch on-chain products and tokenized funds, billions are being poured into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and even governments are setting up BTC treasuries.
This kind of spike in whale buying could mean that the smart money is positioning for the next bullish cycle, one that could create life-changing wealth again for those who ride the big wave in the long run.
We continue to track the progress of a bearish Bitcoin price prediction that was confirmed by a break below the token’s 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) in early November, and that could set in motion a massive correction.
BTC/USD Daily Chart (Coinbase) – Source: TradingView
The first target in this scenario is the $78,000 level, meaning that BTC can still drop by another 10.3% in the next few weeks.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still on a free fall in this higher time frame, indicating that negative momentum continues to be strong as bears are in control of the price action.
Meanwhile, if BTC breaks below this short-term support area, the price could continue to move lower to $58,000. Now, this bearish outlook seems to point to the fact that whales are wrong. Aren’t they looking at the charts?
Most probably, deep-pocketed investors are focused on the big picture. They think BTC is cheap at $80,000. It can drop to much lower levels, sure, but they might keep buying if they believe that the fundamentals remain strong.
Now, that does not mean they will not suffer a strong setback in their positions if our bearish scenario unfolds to its full potential. The last time that BTC moved below its 50-week EMA, it lost 62% of its value in just a few months.
If this happens again, we may see BTC trading at as low as $36,000. This means that whales who bought at $80K will experience a 45% loss.
In this scenario, Saylor’s Strategy treasury may tumble, and the market might be shocked to its core. This reduces the likelihood that such a sharp correction occurs. In addition, whales will probably hedge their positions by buying long-dated puts with extreme strike prices to protect their trades.
In the short term, BTC seems ready to drop by another 10%. Nonetheless, in the long term, the “smart money” seems to be preparing for another historic climb.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.