Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Energy Markets Stay Fragile as Trade Tariffs Mount

Market Overview

Oil prices steadied Thursday as geopolitical tensions and proposed trade tariffs fueled uncertainty over global growth, offset by a weaker U.S. dollar and resilient fuel demand. Analysts noted a cautious buying environment in Asia, while U.S. gasoline demand surged 6% to 9.2M barrels/day.

Global flights reached a record 107,600 daily average in July, with China at its highest level in five months. Despite OPEC+ announcing new output hikes, actual production may lag due to infrastructure issues.

Meanwhile, natural gas remains pressured by oversupply and weak technicals. Year-to-date oil demand growth is tracking 0.97M barrels/day, aligned with forecasts, keeping energy markets delicately balanced.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is consolidating around $3.22 after bouncing slightly from a fresh low near $3.19. The price remains locked within a descending triangle, capped by trendline resistance near $3.28 and pressured by the 50-EMA ($3.32).

The 200-EMA overhead at $3.54 reinforces bearish structure. Key resistance levels to watch are $3.28, $3.36, and $3.42. A confirmed breakout above the trendline could shift the bias bullish toward $3.50+. On the downside, a sustained break below $3.19 could open the door toward $3.14, $3.05, or even $2.93.

Momentum remains weak, and the path of least resistance favors further downside unless bulls reclaim $3.28 with volume.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil continues to trade within a rising channel, currently holding above the $68.02 support level and printing higher lows. Price action is supported by the 50-EMA ($67.71) and 200-EMA ($67.22), both trending upward, indicating bullish momentum.

Immediate resistance is seen at $68.86; a break above this could target $69.43 and $70.05. On the downside, failure to hold the trendline may expose $68.02 and $67.33. Recent candles show consolidation just below resistance, suggesting buyers are preparing for a breakout.

If bulls maintain control, a rally toward the upper boundary of the channel is likely. Traders may consider entering on a confirmed break above $68.86, with tight risk management in place below $68.02.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading near $70.22, maintaining its upward trajectory within a well-defined rising channel. Price is supported by the 50-EMA ($69.45) and 200-EMA ($69.26), both sloping upward, indicating a bullish bias. The upper channel resistance sits near $70.69, a level that previously capped the price.

A breakout above this zone could expose the levels of $71.74 and $72.95. On the downside, key support lies at $69.62 and $68.36. Candlesticks show steadily higher lows, and price action remains above mid-channel structure, suggesting strong trend continuation.

Bulls may consider long entries on a confirmed break above $70.69, while bears will look for weakness below $69.62 to signal short-term reversal.