Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Fed Cut, Inventory Swings and Geopolitical Risks Weigh

Market Overview

WTI crude hovered near $63 a barrel on Friday, trimming weekly gains as geopolitical tensions kept traders on edge. A sharp draw in U.S. crude inventories, driven by exports, offered support, though distillate stockpiles climbed to their highest since January, reviving demand concerns.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut signaled looser policy to bolster a weakening labor market, yet markets read it as a warning of slowing economic momentum.

The mix of tighter supply, cautious demand signals, and geopolitical risks leaves oil and natural gas forecasts delicately balanced heading into next week.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading near $2.93 after breaking below its ascending trendline on the 2-hour chart, signaling a weakening structure. Price has slipped under both the 50-EMA ($3.02) and 200-EMA ($3.01), which now act as resistance.

The RSI sits near 27, highlighting oversold conditions but also underscoring the strength of bearish momentum. Immediate support rests at $2.89, with deeper levels at $2.83 and $2.77 if sellers maintain control. On the upside, bulls would need to reclaim $3.02 to regain footing, with resistance at $3.10 marking a key pivot.

While oversold readings suggest room for a rebound, the technical picture currently leans bearish, and further downside remains likely unless buyers step back in above $3.00.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading around $63.10, sliding after failing to hold above $64.10. The chart shows a rising wedge breakdown, signaling fading momentum. Price is now pressing the $62.88 support, with the 50-EMA and 200-EMA both near $63.54 acting as resistance overhead.

The RSI sits at 41, showing weak momentum and room for more downside before entering oversold territory. A close below $62.88 could expose $62.42 and then $61.74, where buyers may step in.

On the upside, reclaiming $63.70 would ease bearish pressure and allow a retest of $64.10. For now, the short-term outlook remains tilted lower unless bulls defend the $62.80–$63.00 zone with conviction.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading near $67.33, consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 2-hour chart. This structure signals a buildup for a decisive breakout. Price is hovering around both the 50-EMA ($67.62) and 200-EMA ($67.36), showing indecision as bulls and bears fight for control.

The RSI sits near 43, pointing to weak momentum but not yet in oversold territory. Immediate resistance is at $68.64, while support rests at $66.90 and $66.71, where the rising trendline converges.

A breakout above $68.64 could pave the way toward $69.51 and even $70.30. Conversely, a break below $66.90 risks opening the door to $65.73 and $65.07. Until the triangle resolves, Brent remains range-bound, with volatility likely ahead.