Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Fed Cut Expectations Put a Fresh Gold Breakout on the Table

Gold Firms into the Close as Traders Eye a Test of $4374.66

Spot gold is grinding higher late Friday, holding inside yesterday’s range but keeping buyers engaged as we sit just under Thursday’s high at $4374.66 and the record top at $4381.44. It doesn’t look like a rally killer — more like the market pausing as traders sort out whether we get one more push before the weekend.

At 19:08 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4349.11, up $16.52 or +0.38%.

Is Gold Setting Up for a Breakout or Just Catching Its Breath

Flows look steady, not aggressive. Traders continue to respect the uptrend, especially with the 50-day moving average at $4147.11 acting as the key floor. We’re firmly in “buy the dip” mode, and the nearest dip-buying level sits at the minor pivot at $4369.23.

If that level gives way, the major support zone at $4192.36–$4133.95 stays in play — and that zone will move higher if a new record top prints. Buyers seem comfortable letting price chop near the highs as long as those levels remain intact.

Fed Expectations Keep Gold Bid

The softer U.S. CPI print — 2.7% YoY vs. 3.1% expected — and the weaker labor data have kept rate-cut expectations alive. Unemployment rising to 4.6% added to that view. Traders are still leaning toward at least two cuts next year, and while the odds for a January move remain low, March is now tracking near a 57% probability. That’s enough to keep sellers from pressing too hard here.

Yields Edge Up, but Gold Holds Its Tone

Treasury yields firmed slightly, with the 10-year near 4.155%, but gold barely reacted. Buyers continue to step in on shallow pullbacks, even as yields try to push higher. Positioning suggests traders see limited downside as long as rate expectations hold steady. Any surprise uptick in yields next week could test that conviction, but the market isn’t trading defensively.

Gold Price Forecast into the Weekend

The bias stays bullish unless we break below the $4369.23 minor pivot. A push through $4374.66 opens the door for a run at the record $4381.44, and momentum traders will likely chase if that ceiling gives way. On the downside, a deeper fade toward $4192.36–$4133.95 would still be viewed as corrective inside the broader uptrend.

Bottom line: buyers remain in control, and unless yields jump or rate-cut expectations ease, gold looks positioned to take another shot at fresh highs.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.